Browsing by Author "Geraldes, Helena Susana Amaral"
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- Determinants of default: empirical evidence from portuguese small and medium-sized manufacturing firmsPublication . Geraldes, Helena Susana Amaral; Gama, Ana Paula Bernardino MatiasPrevious studies focus on modelling credit default in the bank perspective when analysing the bank-customer relationship. Inversely, this paper aims to develop a credit scoring model that could be used by SMEs, and that improves their knowledge about their default risk. Using data of 1260 Portuguese Manufacturing SMEs, over the period of 1998-2006, the results show that the probability of non-default is an increasing function of profitability, liquidity, coverage and activity, and a decreasing function of leverage. Concerning qualitative factors, the results report that smaller firms and firms with just one bank relationship have a higher probability of default. The analysis of management quality and ownership factors demonstrate that firms where the owner is at the same time the manager and non-family firms are more financially secure in terms of the Probability of Non-Default. Moreover, the performance and qualitative measures for the model developed show that the model is accurate.