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- On the Global Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus: a Long Time Span AnalysisPublication . Marques, Luís Miguel; Fuinhas, José Alberto; Marques, António CardosoThere is plenty of research on the energy-growth nexus for individual countries and panels of countries, but none at a global level. For this reason, this paper aims to provide important information for energy policymakers. The global energy consumption and economic growth nexus was analyzed by using an annual time series from 1965 to 2013. An auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach was followed in the presence of permanent shocks (structural breaks). The ARDL bounds test, as well as both short- and long-run elasticities, was performed. Performing the Johansen co-integration and the Toda and Yamamoto causality testing procedure gives robustness to the results. The results suggest that there is bi-directional causality between energy consumption and growth, both in the short- and long-run. High and positive long-run elasticities were found. Accordingly, conservation policies on energy could reduce economic growth on a worldwide scale. In addition, policies could begin to have a cyclical effect, given that there is bidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth.
- On the dynamics of energy-growth nexus: Evidence from a world divided into four regionsPublication . Marques, Luís Miguel; Fuinhas, José Alberto; Marques, António CardosoThis paper provides a comparative analysis of the energy-growth nexus in different world regions by using an identical methodology for each one, thereby avoiding the usual problem of results varying due to the use of differing methodologies. To access data covering the entire world, four regions were used: (i) America (North and South); (ii) Europe and Central Asia; (iii) Asia Pacific; and (iv) Africa and the Middle East. Annual aggregated time series from 1968 to 2013, and an auto-regressive distributed lag approach were used. The results suggest that, in the long-run: (a) The “feedback hypothesis” is present in America and Asia Pacific; (b) the “conservation hypothesis” was found in Europe and Central Asia and in Africa and the Middle East. Moreover, the results suggest that historical events, such as the oil shocks of 1970 and 1980 and the 2008 financial crisis, have heterogenous impacts across the world.
- Augmented energy-growth nexus: economic, political and social globalization impactsPublication . Marques, Luís Miguel; Fuinhas, José Alberto; Marques, António CardosoThe augmented energy-growth nexus with globalization is analyzed for a panel of 43 countries between 1971 to 2013, by using na autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The impacts of economic, political and social globalization on energy-growth nexus are explored. The results are consistent with the presence of cointegration. Evidences of the traditional feedback hypothesis on the energy-growth nexus was found. Economic, political and social globalization have heterogenous impacts on the nexus. In general, globalization is a long-run driver of both energy consumption and economic growth. Accordingly, globalization should be promoted. In addition, restrictive energy policies should be avoided or carefully designed to no hamper economic growth.
- Does the stock market cause economic growth? Portuguese evidence of economic regime changePublication . Marques, Luís Miguel; Fuinhas, José Alberto; Marques, António CardosoThe relationship between stock market and economic growth is tested for Portugal (1993–2011), which is a small open economy dependent on bank financing. The relationship between economic growth and bank financing is also appraised. Using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modeling, Granger causality, variance decomposition and impulse response function are discussed. The physical replacement of the currency, as a consequence of the integration in the European Monetary Union, proves to be an economic regime change. The effect of the subprime crisis was also proved. There is evidence of Granger bidirectional causality between the stock market and economic growth. Meanwhile, there was no evidence of causality running from bank financing to economic growth.