CEMAPRE - Centre for Applied Mathematics and Economics

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Publications

Differential effect of university entrance score on first-year students’ academic performance in Portugal

Publication . Ferrão, Maria Eugénia; Almeida, Leandro S.

The main goal of this study is to show that the association between university entrance score and first-year students’ academic performance varies randomly across courses after controlling for students’ sociodemographic, schooling trajectory and motivational variables. The sample consists of 2697 first-year students who were enrolled in 54 courses at a Portuguese public university in 2015/16. Multilevel modelling of academic performance suggests that 34% of variability in grade point average is due to differences among courses and that 80% of such variability is explained by the field of study, whether the university is the student’s first choice, and the student’s gender, age and parents’ level of education. In addition, the results corroborate that the university entrance score is the strongest predictor of first-year academic performance.

2019Journal article

Open access

Multiple imputation in big identifiable data for educational research: An example from the Brazilian education assessment system

Publication . Ferrão, Maria Eugénia; Prata, Paula; Alves, Maria Teresa G.

Almost all quantitative studies in educational assessment, evaluation and educational research are based on incomplete data sets, which have been a problem for years without a single solution. The use of big identifiable data poses new challenges in dealing with missing values. In the first part of this paper, we present the state-of-art of the topic in the Brazilian education scientific literature, and how researchers have dealt with missing data since the turn of the century. Next, we use open access software to analyze real-world data, the 2017 Prova Brasil , for several federation units to document how the naïve assumption of missing completely at random may substantially affect statistical conclusions, researcher interpretations, and subsequent implications for policy and practice. We conclude with straightforward suggestions for any education researcher on applying R routines to conduct the hypotheses test of missing completely at random and, if the null hypothesis is rejected, then how to implement the multiple imputation, which appears to be one of the most appropriate methods for handling missing data.

2020Journal article

Open access

Uma década da Prova Brasil: evolução do desempenho e da aprovação

Publication . Alves, Maria Teresa G.; Ferrão, Maria Eugénia

O artigo analisa os dados originados pela aplicação da Prova Brasil, a fim de responder duas perguntas: no período de dez anos, houve avanços na qualidade da educação em termos de aprendizado e aprovação no ensino fundamental 1 e 2? Quem são os alunos que melhoraram (ou não), segundo recortes territoriais e características sociais? São apresentadas estatísticas descritivas dos níveis de proficiência e da autodeclaração sobre a reprovação dos alunos do 5º e 9º anos de 2007 a 2017. Os resultados mostram uma melhora contínua dos dois indicadores de qualidade em todas as regiões e grupos sociais. Porém, pelos critérios adotados, as diferenças entre os grupos sociais e regiões do país são importantes para entender os entraves no avanço global do aprendizado e na redução da reprovação.

2019Journal article

Open access

[MOTIVO: demanda da professora Eugénia] A review on statistical methods in higher education research

Unknown

Analysis of grade repetition through multilevel models: A study from Portugal

Publication . Bastos, Amélia; Ferrão, Maria Eugénia

This paper investigates grade repetition in Portugal using microdata. Drawing on multilevel models, we analyse the number of times the student repeated a grade in compulsory education – our dependent variable – in association with children’s individual characteristics, household sociodemographic and economic background, and children’s living conditions – our covariates. Furthermore, we also attempt to shed light on the impact of schools on the endogenous variable. Our results confi rm the importance of individual, family, and neighbourhood characteristics on the rate of grade repetition. In terms of schools, the results obtained show that the student’s probability of failure vary across schools, demonstrating the importance of the impact of the school itself on grade repetition.

2019Journal article

Open access