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Abstract(s)
Ao longo do seu período de vida, as infraestruturas rodoviárias são sujeitas a intervenções de conservação e de reabilitação que têm por objetivo manter determinados padrões de qualidade e segurança. Os locais onde decorrem estas intervenções são denominados de “zonas em obras” e constituem pontos sensíveis da rede em termos de sinistralidade. Nestes locais verificam-se alterações temporárias das condições de circulação oferecidas aos utentes (velocidades de circulação mais baixas, encerramento e/ou estreitamento de vias, manobras adicionais de mudança de via e presença de trabalhadores e equipamentos próximos da zona de circulação, entre outros), exigindo uma atenção especial por parte destes.
Tendo em conta as particularidades destas zonas, pretende-se com a presente dissertação identificar os fatores de risco com maior influência na sinistralidade verificada nas zonas em obras da rede rodoviária de Portugal Continental durante o triénio 2013-2015. Os dados utilizados na análise foram fornecidos pela Autoridade Nacional de Segurança Rodoviária (ANSR) e a abordagem usada recorre a uma análise estatística exploratória e ao desenvolvimento de modelos de regressão logística binária por tipo de acidente (atropelamento, despiste simples, colisão traseira e colisão lateral), fator contribuinte (excesso de velocidade, obstáculo imprevisto, desrespeito da sinalização vertical e desrespeito da distância de segurança) e grupo etário dos condutores intervenientes (jovem, adulto e sénior). A interpretação das estimativas obtidas para a razão de chances das variáveis explicativas significativas permitiu identificar que fatores aumentam a probabilidade de ocorrência deste tipo de acidentes para cada modelo considerado.
Analisando os resultados obtidos é possível verificar que os fatores “meio urbano”, “circulação em marcha normal” e boas condições de “aderência” e de “luminosidade” apresentaram um impacto positivo num número significativo de modelos (aumentam a probabilidade de ocorrência do acidente).
A identificação destes fatores permitirá sustentar a escolha de medidas de segurança a implementar nestas zonas com vista a minimizar o risco de ocorrência de acidentes.
Over its lifetime, road infrastructures are subjected to maintenance and rehabilitation treatments which aim to maintain certain quality and safety standards. The areas where such actions take place are named “work zones”. Road work zones are considered sensible areas in terms of road safety since a temporary change in the traffic conditions provided to the drivers is verified (lower speed, lane closure and/or narrowing, additional lane change maneuvers, presence of workers and equipment, among others), requiring an additional awareness by the drivers in order to adapt themselves to the new driving conditions. Considering the particularities of roadwork areas, it is intended with the current thesis to identify the most influent risk factors related to work zone crashes occurred in the Portuguese road network during the 2013-2015 period. The data used in the analysis was provided by the Portuguese Road Safety Authority (ANSR) and the adopted approach includes an exploratory statistical analysis and the development of binary logistic regression models by type of crash (pedestrian, run-off road, angle and rear-end), contributing factor (unexpected obstacle, excessive speed, disregard for vertical signs and disregard for safety distance) and driver age group (young, middle and elderly). The interpretation of the odds ratio obtained estimates for significant explanatory variables allowed to identify, for each considered model, the factors that increase the occurrence probability of these type of crashes. By analyzing the obtained results, it is possible to conclude that the factors “urban environment”, “straight driving” and good “grip” and “luminosity” conditions had a positive impact in a significant number of models (increases the probability of occurrence of a crash). The identification of such factors will allow to sustain the selection of safety measures to be implemented in work zones in order to minimize the occurrence risk of accidents.
Over its lifetime, road infrastructures are subjected to maintenance and rehabilitation treatments which aim to maintain certain quality and safety standards. The areas where such actions take place are named “work zones”. Road work zones are considered sensible areas in terms of road safety since a temporary change in the traffic conditions provided to the drivers is verified (lower speed, lane closure and/or narrowing, additional lane change maneuvers, presence of workers and equipment, among others), requiring an additional awareness by the drivers in order to adapt themselves to the new driving conditions. Considering the particularities of roadwork areas, it is intended with the current thesis to identify the most influent risk factors related to work zone crashes occurred in the Portuguese road network during the 2013-2015 period. The data used in the analysis was provided by the Portuguese Road Safety Authority (ANSR) and the adopted approach includes an exploratory statistical analysis and the development of binary logistic regression models by type of crash (pedestrian, run-off road, angle and rear-end), contributing factor (unexpected obstacle, excessive speed, disregard for vertical signs and disregard for safety distance) and driver age group (young, middle and elderly). The interpretation of the odds ratio obtained estimates for significant explanatory variables allowed to identify, for each considered model, the factors that increase the occurrence probability of these type of crashes. By analyzing the obtained results, it is possible to conclude that the factors “urban environment”, “straight driving” and good “grip” and “luminosity” conditions had a positive impact in a significant number of models (increases the probability of occurrence of a crash). The identification of such factors will allow to sustain the selection of safety measures to be implemented in work zones in order to minimize the occurrence risk of accidents.
Description
Keywords
Regressão Logística Binária Segurança e Sinistralidade Nas Zonas Em Obras Segurança Rodoviária Zonas Em Obras