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Abstract(s)
Este trabalho contribui para o debate sobre a política tarifária, com a análise do
mercado residencial de electricidade em Portugal. Para isso, recorremos às técnicas de regressão logística (modelo logit) e de regressão de quantis. Procedeu-se à recolha de dados primários através da técnica de inquérito, tendo a amostra respeitado a representatividade geográfica. Para perfis de consumidores diferentes, estimamos a probabilidade de opção por tarifas com preços diferenciados consoante o período de consumo e a probabilidade de obtenção de poupanças com a alteração de tarifa. Os resultados revelam grande consistência e
robustez, e os sinais das variáveis são em geral, coincidentes com o esperado. A probabilidade estimada de um consumidor na média das variáveis optar pela tarifa bi-horária é de 41,6% e é de 58,4% a probabilidade de opção por tarifa plana. A baixa escolaridade e os consumos em
períodos de pico contribuem negativamente para a opção tarifária por preços diferenciados de electricidade de acordo com o período de consumo (TOU), enquanto que a percentagem de menores de idade no agregado familiar, os consumos feitos em horas de vazio e o rendimento incentivam a opção TOU. O factor de natureza comportamental e de conhecimento dos consumidores revela-se significativo na explicação da opção por preços diferenciados. Os resultados mostram a importância das campanhas de sensibilização aos consumidores, uma vez que quando estes demonstram conhecimento e capacidade de adaptação às características
do mercado, conseguem reduzir os gastos mensais com electricidade. Da mesma forma,
quando um consumidor consegue alterar hábitos de consumo, aumenta em 33% as
possibilidades de poupança. Através da regressão de quantis, mostramos que, o efeito da idade, tamanho da habitação, standby e ar condicionado são consistentemente positivos e estatisticamente significativos na distribuição do custo mensal com electricidade – estas variáveis estão correlacionadas com elevados níveis de consumo de electricidade. O efeito do
aquecimento de água a electricidade é significativo, positivo e com magnitude superior em quantis mais elevados. Concluímos que a magnitude dos efeitos que explicam os custos mensais com electricidade resultantes da sua opção tarifária varia consoante o nível de consumo. A consciência de ser um consumidor eficiente de energia provoca um efeito redutor no consumo, como seria de esperar, sendo que esse efeito tem magnitude reduzida para níveis
de consumo já muito baixos, e tem magnitude relativamente constante para todo o centro da
distribuição condicional. Os resultados sugerem linhas orientadoras para a definição de
políticas que confiram incentivos para uma efectiva alteração de períodos de consumo e de opção de tarifa.
This paper contributes to the debate about peak load pricing by doing an analysis of the electricity residential market in Portugal, which is built both on techniques of logit regression and quantile regression. To achieve this work we proceeded to the primary data collection through the technique of investigation, the sample was constructed respecting the geographic representation. We estimate the probability of choosing the time-of-use electricity rate and the probability of saving by switching the rate for different consumers’ profiles. The results reveal great consistency and robustness and the signs of the estimates are in general coincident with expected. The estimated probability of an average consumer to choose a TOU rate is 41.6, in opposition to 58.4 for a flat rate. A small number of years in school and consumption at peak periods affect negatively the choice TOU rates. The variables: percentage of children’s (0-18 years old) in household, the consumption made at off-peak, and income, both have an significant incentive the choice for different electricity prices according to the time of consumption. Factors such as consumers’ behaviour and knowledge are determinants when it comes to choose differentiated prices. Consumers increase the opportunities for cost savings when they change their habits (switching), particularly through the movement of consumption to off-peak hours. The results suggest the importance of consciousness campaigns, since consumers demonstrate knowledge and skills to adapt to the market. Likewise, when a consumer can change consumption habits, this allows an increase of about 33% in the chances of costs saving. Through quantile regression, we show that, the effects of age, household size, standby, and air conditioning are consistently positive and statistically significant throughout the conditional distribution of the monthly cost of electricity - these variables are correlated with high levels of electricity consumption. The effect of electrical heat water is significant, positive, and greater in magnitude for higher quantiles. It seems that the magnitude of effects that explain the monthly costs of electricity resulting of their rate choice varies according to the level of consumption. The consciousness of being an efficient consumer of energy causes a lowering effect on consumption, as expected. This former effect has a tiny magnitude for very low levels of consumption and it is quite constant for the most of the conditional distribution. Our results suggest guidelines to define policy measures that will promote an effective change of consumption periods and rate choices.
This paper contributes to the debate about peak load pricing by doing an analysis of the electricity residential market in Portugal, which is built both on techniques of logit regression and quantile regression. To achieve this work we proceeded to the primary data collection through the technique of investigation, the sample was constructed respecting the geographic representation. We estimate the probability of choosing the time-of-use electricity rate and the probability of saving by switching the rate for different consumers’ profiles. The results reveal great consistency and robustness and the signs of the estimates are in general coincident with expected. The estimated probability of an average consumer to choose a TOU rate is 41.6, in opposition to 58.4 for a flat rate. A small number of years in school and consumption at peak periods affect negatively the choice TOU rates. The variables: percentage of children’s (0-18 years old) in household, the consumption made at off-peak, and income, both have an significant incentive the choice for different electricity prices according to the time of consumption. Factors such as consumers’ behaviour and knowledge are determinants when it comes to choose differentiated prices. Consumers increase the opportunities for cost savings when they change their habits (switching), particularly through the movement of consumption to off-peak hours. The results suggest the importance of consciousness campaigns, since consumers demonstrate knowledge and skills to adapt to the market. Likewise, when a consumer can change consumption habits, this allows an increase of about 33% in the chances of costs saving. Through quantile regression, we show that, the effects of age, household size, standby, and air conditioning are consistently positive and statistically significant throughout the conditional distribution of the monthly cost of electricity - these variables are correlated with high levels of electricity consumption. The effect of electrical heat water is significant, positive, and greater in magnitude for higher quantiles. It seems that the magnitude of effects that explain the monthly costs of electricity resulting of their rate choice varies according to the level of consumption. The consciousness of being an efficient consumer of energy causes a lowering effect on consumption, as expected. This former effect has a tiny magnitude for very low levels of consumption and it is quite constant for the most of the conditional distribution. Our results suggest guidelines to define policy measures that will promote an effective change of consumption periods and rate choices.
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Keywords
Electricidade - Política tarifária Economia de energia