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Abstract(s)
A previsão da insolvência empresarial é um tema relevante para diversos agentes
económicos, nomeadamente responsáveis pela gestão das empresas, investidores, trabalhadores, credores, instituições financeiras, Governo e outros.
Este estudo analisa as principais características do processo de insolvência empresarial, com o objectivo de identificar e quantificar as variáveis contabilísticas relevantes na previsão e análise da insolvência empresarial.
No contexto de previsão de insolvência financeira das empresas da indústria nacional do calçado, analisamos um conjunto de rácios económico-financeiros com a aplicação de técnicas estatísticas multivariadas, mais concretamente a análise discriminante e a regressão logit. De acordo com a revisão da literatura, estes modelos continuam válidos e actuais, apesar da sua aplicabilidade na previsão de insolvência financeira provir das décadas de sessenta e setenta.
A utilidade da técnica da análise de rácios, amplamente referida na gestão financeira, é
também analisada neste estudo em conjunto com as características quantitativas
potenciais da insolvência financeira. Os modelos analisados neste estudo têm como
objectivo a previsão da insolvência financeira das empresas do Sector do Calçado
Português, assim como proporcionar evidência empírica, de que as demonstrações
económico-financeiras facultam informação importante sobre o processo de deterioração dos indicadores empresariais e da robustez financeira da empresa.
The forecast of corporate insolvency it’s a relevant theme to several economical agents, in particular the ones responsible for the business management, investors, creditors, financial institutions, Govern and others. The current study analyses the main aspects of the corporate insolvency process, with the intension of identifying and quantifying the variables accounting that are relevant in the forecast and analyse of the corporate insolvency. In the forecasting context of financial insolvency of companies in the national industry of footwear, we analyse a set of economic and financial ratios with the application of multivariate statistical techniques, more specifically the discriminant analysis and the logistic regression. According to the latest literature revision, these models are still valid and actual, in spite of its applicability in the financial insolvency forecast comes from the sixth and seventh decades. The utility of the ratios analyse technique, is widely referred to in financial management, and this is also analysed in this these with the quantitative features of potential financial insolvency. The models analysed in this study have the purpose to predict the financial insolvency of the companies in the sector of the Portuguese Footwear, and also provide empirical evidence, that the economic-financial statements offer important information about the deterioration process of the business markers and of the company's financial strength.
The forecast of corporate insolvency it’s a relevant theme to several economical agents, in particular the ones responsible for the business management, investors, creditors, financial institutions, Govern and others. The current study analyses the main aspects of the corporate insolvency process, with the intension of identifying and quantifying the variables accounting that are relevant in the forecast and analyse of the corporate insolvency. In the forecasting context of financial insolvency of companies in the national industry of footwear, we analyse a set of economic and financial ratios with the application of multivariate statistical techniques, more specifically the discriminant analysis and the logistic regression. According to the latest literature revision, these models are still valid and actual, in spite of its applicability in the financial insolvency forecast comes from the sixth and seventh decades. The utility of the ratios analyse technique, is widely referred to in financial management, and this is also analysed in this these with the quantitative features of potential financial insolvency. The models analysed in this study have the purpose to predict the financial insolvency of the companies in the sector of the Portuguese Footwear, and also provide empirical evidence, that the economic-financial statements offer important information about the deterioration process of the business markers and of the company's financial strength.
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Keywords
Insolvência financeira - Modelos de precisão Indústria de calçado - Portugal