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Abstract(s)
Os problemas de mobilidade urbana verificados na maioria das cidades de média e grande
dimensão a nível mundial intensificaram-se nas últimas décadas devido ao desenvolvimento
económico verificado na maioria dos países. Este desenvolvimento potenciou alterações nos
hábitos de mobilidade, que resultaram, na grande maioria dos casos, num uso excessivo do
automóvel particular, modo extraordinariamente apelativo não apenas pelo conforto e
liberdade que oferece, como pelo status que lhe está associado, e a um decréscimo
acentuado e progressivo de modos de transportes alternativos mais sustentáveis. É
consensualmente assumido internacionalmente que apenas uma conjugação coerente de
políticas que coordenem, mas também condicionem e complementem o uso do automóvel
particular com as alternativas mais sustentáveis, poderá inverter este panorama, e mitigar os
problemas verificados sem, no entanto, reduzir ou prejudicar a mobilidade e a qualidade de
vida dos cidadãos, essenciais para a continuação do desenvolvimento económico e social das
cidades. Esta lógica passa por políticas que além de melhorarem a atratividade dos modos
alternativos reduzam a facilidade e conveniência de uso do automóvel particular. Apesar da
grande quantidade de estudos internacionais sobre a relevância de parte deste tipo de fatores
no processo de tomada de decisão na escolha do modo de transporte, tal não acontece
relativamente ao desenvolvimento de modelos objetivos e analíticos, capazes de, de forma
completamente integrada e detalhada, determinar o impacto sobre os padrões de escolha
modal da conjugação das condições socioeconómicas dos cidadãos e das políticas gerais de
ordenamento do território e mobilidade nesse processo. A possibilidade de quantificar este
tipo de impactos apresenta-se como um fator que poderá tornar as decisões políticas sobre
investimentos nos sistemas de transportes de uma cidade mais eficientes.
O presente estudo pretende contribuir para esse mesmo conhecimento, utilizando como caso
de estudo a Área Metropolitana do Porto, com dados socioeconómicos da população e sobre a
estrutura urbana e da mobilidade no ano 2000. Assim, através da especificação de
modelações de escolha discreta utilizando formulações Logit Multinomiais, realizaram-se
extensas análises exploratórias para identificação dos atributos mais relevantes para a
escolha dos modos de transportes mais sustentáveis, assim como dos fatores que
manifestamente influenciam a atratividade do automóvel particular. Atenção foi também
dedicada à definição das melhores modelações das inter-relações entre variáveis explicativas
e a variável dependente, repartição modal, com especial atenção ao estudo de potenciais
fenómenos de interação e interdependência de efeitos provocados por diferentes variáveis
socioeconómicas caracterizadoras do universo de utilizadores do sistema. Adicionalmente
foram realizadas algumas análises exploratórias para testar a estabilidade das tendências
atuais de evolução dos padrões de escolha modal e do potencial revelado pelas medidas de
política de ordenamento do território e de mobilidade sustentável mais relevantes,
particularmente se aplicadas de forma integrada e coordenada. O estudo pretende, assim, contribuir para um conhecimento, cientificamente comprovado, dos processos de escolha
modal, nomeadamente mas não especificamente, para a realidade nacional.
The problems of urban mobility observed in most cities of medium and large scale worldwide have intensified in recent decades due to economic development observed in almost all countries. This development has leveraged changes in mobility habits, which, in most cases, resulted in excessive use of private cars, so extraordinarily appealing not only because of the comfort and freedom they offer, but also due to the social status it provides as well as progressive and distinct decrease in the use of alternative more sustainable transport modes. It is widely and internationally assumed that only a coherent combination of policies that coordinate, but constrain the use of the private car usage and complement it with more sustainable alternatives, may reverse this panorama and mitigate the problems faced without, however, reduce or impair citizens’ mobility and quality of life, essential to the cities’ economic growth and social development. This logic involves policies that, besides improving alternative modes attractiveness, also reduce the ease of use and attractiveness of the private car. Despite the large amount of international studies on the mode choice decision process, there is a lack in the development of analytical and objective models, capable of fully integrating the impact on mode choice patterns of citizens’ socio-economic conditions and general urban and mobility planning policies in this process. The possibility of quantifying such impacts presents itself as a key factor to enable the improvement of the efficiency of political decisions on urban transport systems investments. The present study aims to contribute to such knowledge, using as a case study the Oporto Metropolitan Area, with pre-existing socioeconomic data of its population and on the urban structure and mobility in 2000. Thus, discrete choice models using Multinomial Logit formulations were specified and extensive exploratory analysis were carried out to identify the most relevant attributes related with attraction to more sustainable transport modes as well as factors that clearly reduce the attractiveness of the private car. Attention was also devoted to the specification of the best models to describe interrelationships between explanatory variables and the dependent variable, modal split, with special attention to the study of potential interaction and interdependence effects caused by different socioeconomic variables characterizing the system’s user’s universe. Additionally some exploratory analyses were performed to test the stability of the current trends on modal choice patterns and on the potential impact of relevant urban planning and sustainable mobility policy measures, particularly if applied in an integrated and coordinated way. The study, thus, seeks to improve scientific knowledge of transport users’ modal choices processes, namely, but not specifically, regarding the national reality.
The problems of urban mobility observed in most cities of medium and large scale worldwide have intensified in recent decades due to economic development observed in almost all countries. This development has leveraged changes in mobility habits, which, in most cases, resulted in excessive use of private cars, so extraordinarily appealing not only because of the comfort and freedom they offer, but also due to the social status it provides as well as progressive and distinct decrease in the use of alternative more sustainable transport modes. It is widely and internationally assumed that only a coherent combination of policies that coordinate, but constrain the use of the private car usage and complement it with more sustainable alternatives, may reverse this panorama and mitigate the problems faced without, however, reduce or impair citizens’ mobility and quality of life, essential to the cities’ economic growth and social development. This logic involves policies that, besides improving alternative modes attractiveness, also reduce the ease of use and attractiveness of the private car. Despite the large amount of international studies on the mode choice decision process, there is a lack in the development of analytical and objective models, capable of fully integrating the impact on mode choice patterns of citizens’ socio-economic conditions and general urban and mobility planning policies in this process. The possibility of quantifying such impacts presents itself as a key factor to enable the improvement of the efficiency of political decisions on urban transport systems investments. The present study aims to contribute to such knowledge, using as a case study the Oporto Metropolitan Area, with pre-existing socioeconomic data of its population and on the urban structure and mobility in 2000. Thus, discrete choice models using Multinomial Logit formulations were specified and extensive exploratory analysis were carried out to identify the most relevant attributes related with attraction to more sustainable transport modes as well as factors that clearly reduce the attractiveness of the private car. Attention was also devoted to the specification of the best models to describe interrelationships between explanatory variables and the dependent variable, modal split, with special attention to the study of potential interaction and interdependence effects caused by different socioeconomic variables characterizing the system’s user’s universe. Additionally some exploratory analyses were performed to test the stability of the current trends on modal choice patterns and on the potential impact of relevant urban planning and sustainable mobility policy measures, particularly if applied in an integrated and coordinated way. The study, thus, seeks to improve scientific knowledge of transport users’ modal choices processes, namely, but not specifically, regarding the national reality.
Description
Keywords
Política de transportes - Mobilidade sustentável Repartição modal - Transportes Transportes colectivos Transportes - Escolha modal - Área urbana Modelos de escolha discreta