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Abstract(s)
Com a concretização da Moeda Única, profundas mudanças condicionaram a evolução da
economia Portuguesa e o comportamento dos agentes económicos. Esta dissertação utiliza
dados com periodicidade mensal para o período entre Janeiro de 1999 e Dezembro de 2012 e
recorre ao Modelo Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) para estudar, no curto e no longo
prazo, a relação das taxas de juro com a procura de crédito em Portugal, atendendo à
evolução de variáveis económicas de diferente natureza. A análise preliminar do modelo
mostrou que a variável rendimento disponível não é estatisticamente significante, no longo
prazo, e como tal não foi considerada no modelo. A estimação do modelo comprovou efeitos
de curto e de longo prazo. Verifica-se que a variável taxa de juro real tem efeitos no
endividamento no curto e no longo prazo, sendo mais evidentes no longo prazo. Este facto
revela que o aumento da taxa de juro real provoca o aumento do nível de endividamento dos
consumidores, que poderá ser justificado pelo fenómeno do sobreendividamento, i.e., os
mutuários fazem as renegociações das suas dívidas por norma com taxas de juro mais
elevadas. A variável rendimento disponível apenas tem efeitos no curto prazo e evidencia um
efeito negativo sobre o endividamento, o que revela que as famílias estão a realizar um
esforço de correcção dos excessos de consumo. A balança corrente e de capital têm no curto
e no longo prazo impacto negativo no endividamento, o que denota preferência pelo consumo
presente, em detrimento do consumo futuro. Os índices de sentimento económico e confiança
dos consumidores são vitais para o endividamento no longo prazo. O Índice de Confiança dos
Consumidores evidencia um efeito contemporâneo, porque revela que quando o
endividamento aumenta a confiança dos agentes económicos diminui. Este sinal,
aparentemente contraditório com a teoria clássica, pode estar relacionado pelo facto de os
mutuários terem cometido erros de endividamento no passado, uma vez que para fazerem
face às obrigações do presente têm de voltar a endividar-se.
With the achievement of a single currency under the economic and monetary union, several changes conditioned the evolution of the Portuguese economy as well as the behavior of the economic agents’ households. This dissertation uses monthly data for the time span from January 1999 till December 2012. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) model is used to study, both in the short- and long-run, the relationship between interest rates and household credit demand in Portugal, paying attention to the evolution of economic variables of different nature. Overall, the model confirms the appropriateness of controlling the effects verified in the short- and in the long-run. Results prove that the disposable income is statistically significant in explaining the households’ indebtedness, only in the short-run. It has been proved that real interest rate has consequences in the indebtedness, in the shortand long-run. This fact reveals that the increase of the real interest rate provokes the growth of households´ indebtedness, which can be justified by the phenomenon called as “over indebtedness”. Indeed, the households renegotiate their debts, usually with higher interest rates. The variable disposable income only has effect in the short-run which is negative. This result is revealing that households are making an effort to correct their excesses of consumption. The current and capital balance has, in the short- or long-run, a negative impact in the indebtedness, which denotes preferences for the present consumption instead of future consumption. The indices of economic sentiment and consumer confidence are vital to the long-run indebtedness. Indeed, the consumer confidence index reflects a contemporaneous effect on the household credit. When the confidence of the households reduces, then the indebtedness tends to increase. This signal, apparently contradictory to the classic theory, actually can be explained by the fact that households had made mistakes concerning their debt in the past. As such, to confront their current obligations, they have to get into debt again.
With the achievement of a single currency under the economic and monetary union, several changes conditioned the evolution of the Portuguese economy as well as the behavior of the economic agents’ households. This dissertation uses monthly data for the time span from January 1999 till December 2012. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) model is used to study, both in the short- and long-run, the relationship between interest rates and household credit demand in Portugal, paying attention to the evolution of economic variables of different nature. Overall, the model confirms the appropriateness of controlling the effects verified in the short- and in the long-run. Results prove that the disposable income is statistically significant in explaining the households’ indebtedness, only in the short-run. It has been proved that real interest rate has consequences in the indebtedness, in the shortand long-run. This fact reveals that the increase of the real interest rate provokes the growth of households´ indebtedness, which can be justified by the phenomenon called as “over indebtedness”. Indeed, the households renegotiate their debts, usually with higher interest rates. The variable disposable income only has effect in the short-run which is negative. This result is revealing that households are making an effort to correct their excesses of consumption. The current and capital balance has, in the short- or long-run, a negative impact in the indebtedness, which denotes preferences for the present consumption instead of future consumption. The indices of economic sentiment and consumer confidence are vital to the long-run indebtedness. Indeed, the consumer confidence index reflects a contemporaneous effect on the household credit. When the confidence of the households reduces, then the indebtedness tends to increase. This signal, apparently contradictory to the classic theory, actually can be explained by the fact that households had made mistakes concerning their debt in the past. As such, to confront their current obligations, they have to get into debt again.
Description
Keywords
Confiança e Sentimento Económico. Crédito Endividamento Rendimento Disponível Taxa de Juro Real