Browsing by Author "Afonso, Tiago Jorge Lopes"
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- Energy transition and economic growth: Evidence from countries with barriers to deversification of their electricity mixPublication . Afonso, Tiago Jorge Lopes; Marques, António Manuel Cardoso; Fuinhas, José Alberto Serra Ferreira RodriguesIn the global context of energy transition, many countries are trying to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The diversification of the electricity mix has been achieved with the development of intermittent renewable generation sources. To improve the understanding of the transition from fossil sources to renewable sources, it is necessary to analyse the constraints and drivers of this transition. With this in mind, this thesis is aimed at empirically analysing the behaviour of the interacting of sources, considering the existence of dominant sources, and the market size, while taking into account the commitment to economic growth. This thesis consists of four essays. The first essay addresses the role of renewable energies in economic growth, considering the context of an innocent barrier to diversification. The dominance of a generation source in the electricity mix, such as the abundance of a natural resource or by strategic option, may obstruct the entry or development of new sources in the electricity mix. Using panel data estimators for an annual frequency, the results show empirical evidence for a negative relationship of renewable energies to economic growth. Countries with a dominant source have a comparative advantage, so they face a trade-off between continuing to produce using the dominant source, promoting economic growth, or introducing alternative sources that may compromise economic activity. An electricity market is an essential tool in the accommodation of renewables, it distributes the excesses, and imports the production deficit, depending on the market size. The market size is related, not only to the geographical extent, but also to the depth, integration of sources, electricity mix diversity of the members, and flows of electricity traded. Therefore, the market size may be a potential barrier to the development of renewables. The second essay analyses the interactions between electricity generation sources and economic activity in the context of a large electricity market. Using autoregressive distributed lag models in time series with monthly frequency for a sample of two countries in the Nord Pool Spot, the results show that endogenous natural resources are supporting economic activity. In the third essay, the interaction of electricity sources with the wholesale market price in a small market context is considered. Using a vector autoregressive model with daily frequency time series, the two members of the Iberian market were analysed. The results show that the two countries, Spain, and Portugal, do not interact with the market in the same way. The scale of electricity generation is very different in the two electrical systems. The establishment of admission criteria to an electricity market, such as the diversity of the mix in relation to existing members, is recommended. Diversification of an electricity mix can be used to reduce energy dependency and promote energy transition. The fourth essay addresses two concepts of energy transition, specifically clean energy transition and low carbon energy transition. Two indicators were computed and proposed to measure both transition approaches. In clean energy transition, renewables were considered as part of the transition, while in low carbon energy transition, both renewable and nuclear sources were considered as part of the energy transition. Some panel data estimators were applied in two sub-samples, non-nuclear and nuclear producers. Energy efficiency and trade openness as a supporter of energy transition are a common feature in both approaches. As such, energy efficiency promotion measures are necessary for the development of renewables.
- The Dynamics of the Italian electricity generation system: an empirical assessmentPublication . Afonso, Tiago Jorge Lopes; Marques, António Manuel CardosoEste trabalho analisa a forma como as fontes de geração de eletricidade interagem entre si, e destas com a atividade económica, em Itália. Este é um país que passou por um período de instabilidade económica e está muito dependente da importação de eletricidade e também de matérias-primas para a geração de eletricidade. Estes fatores tornam a análise da dinâmica de interação entre fontes em Itália particularmente relevante. Com base em dados com frequência mensal, recorre-se à abordagem ARDL. Esta abordagem permite uma análise mais alargada, aplicável a variáveis I(0) e I(1), bem como permite decompor os efeitos totais em efeitos de curto e de longo-prazo. Esta análise é complementada com a causalidade Toda-Yamamoto para analisar as relações causais. Os resultados da evidência empírica revelam coerência interna e confirmam o efeito de substituição entre fonte fóssil e hídrica. A geração a partir da fonte hídrica tem sinal positivo no curto-prazo e negativo no longo-prazo. Observou-se ainda a existência de causalidade bidirecional, no longo-prazo, entre atividade económica e fontes de geração renovável, isto é, a atividade económica incentiva a geração de renováveis, não se confirmando o reverso. Este resultado está de acordo com o facto de que a contribuição das renováveis resulta eminentemente dos objetivos traçados na União Europeia. Conclui-se ainda que a dependência de energia do exterior compromete a atividade económica em Itália. Assim, os decisores de política devem estimular a produção endógena de eletricidade. Os objetivos traçados pela União Europeia deveriam ter em conta o nível de riqueza dos países. Este trabalho contém ainda uma discussão aprofundada de políticas de energia para tornar mais flexível a acomodação das fontes geração dentro do sistema.