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Abstract(s)
Este trabalho analisa a forma como as fontes de geração de eletricidade interagem entre si, e destas com a atividade económica, em Itália. Este é um país que passou por um período de instabilidade económica e está muito dependente da importação de eletricidade e também de matérias-primas para a geração de eletricidade. Estes fatores tornam a análise da dinâmica de interação entre fontes em Itália particularmente relevante. Com base em dados com frequência mensal, recorre-se à abordagem ARDL. Esta abordagem permite uma análise mais alargada, aplicável a variáveis I(0) e I(1), bem como permite decompor os efeitos totais em efeitos de curto e de longo-prazo. Esta análise é complementada com a causalidade Toda-Yamamoto para analisar as relações causais. Os resultados da evidência empírica revelam coerência interna e confirmam o efeito de substituição entre fonte fóssil e hídrica. A geração a partir da fonte hídrica tem sinal positivo no curto-prazo e negativo no longo-prazo. Observou-se ainda a existência de causalidade bidirecional, no longo-prazo, entre atividade económica e fontes de geração renovável, isto é, a atividade económica incentiva a geração de renováveis, não se confirmando o reverso. Este resultado está de acordo com o facto de que a contribuição das renováveis resulta eminentemente dos objetivos traçados na União Europeia. Conclui-se ainda que a dependência de energia do exterior compromete a atividade económica em Itália. Assim, os decisores de política devem estimular a produção endógena de eletricidade. Os objetivos traçados pela União Europeia deveriam ter em conta o nível de riqueza dos países. Este trabalho contém ainda uma discussão aprofundada de políticas de energia para tornar mais flexível a acomodação das fontes geração dentro do sistema.
This work focused on how the electricity generation sources interact with each other, and these with the economic activity in Italy. This is a country that went through a period of instable in its economic activity. It is very dependent on the importation of electricity and of raw materials for electricity generation. These factors make the analysis of the dynamics of interaction between fonts in Italy particularly interesting. Monthly data are used, using an ARDL approach. This approach allows the use of variables I(0) and I(1) at the same time, as well as allowing to understand the difference in the short and long-run effects. The Toda-Yamamoto causality was used to figure out the causal relationships. In general, the results show an empirical evidence to the substitution effect between hydropower and fossil fuels. The hydropower generation source has a positive impact in the short-run and in the long-run it has negative one, given that, the possibility of expanding the capacity in this generation source has almost depleted. The existence of a bidirectional causality, in the long-run, between economic activity and renewable energy sources was founded, in other words, economic activity encourages renewable energy generation, but the opposite is not verified. This result is consistent with the fact that the contribution of renewables results of the goals outlined in the European Union. Thus policy makers should stimulate the endogenous production of electricity. The target set by European Union should take into account the level of richness of the countries. This work also contains a detailed discussion about energy policies to make the accommodation of the generation sources within the system more flexible.
This work focused on how the electricity generation sources interact with each other, and these with the economic activity in Italy. This is a country that went through a period of instable in its economic activity. It is very dependent on the importation of electricity and of raw materials for electricity generation. These factors make the analysis of the dynamics of interaction between fonts in Italy particularly interesting. Monthly data are used, using an ARDL approach. This approach allows the use of variables I(0) and I(1) at the same time, as well as allowing to understand the difference in the short and long-run effects. The Toda-Yamamoto causality was used to figure out the causal relationships. In general, the results show an empirical evidence to the substitution effect between hydropower and fossil fuels. The hydropower generation source has a positive impact in the short-run and in the long-run it has negative one, given that, the possibility of expanding the capacity in this generation source has almost depleted. The existence of a bidirectional causality, in the long-run, between economic activity and renewable energy sources was founded, in other words, economic activity encourages renewable energy generation, but the opposite is not verified. This result is consistent with the fact that the contribution of renewables results of the goals outlined in the European Union. Thus policy makers should stimulate the endogenous production of electricity. The target set by European Union should take into account the level of richness of the countries. This work also contains a detailed discussion about energy policies to make the accommodation of the generation sources within the system more flexible.
Description
Keywords
Ardl Causalidade Toda-Yamamoto Crescimento Económico Electricidade Renovável e Não Renovável Itália