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- Marketing as a Belief System: a model of consumer behaviourPublication . Oliveira, Patrícia João Rodrigues; Rodrigues, Fernando António de Oliveira Carvalho; Rodrigues, Ricardo José de Ascensão GouveiaUnderstanding consumer behaviour and their decisions is essential in marketing because most marketing campaigns try to influence the consumer’s decision-making process. The term consumer refers not only to the act of purchase itself but also to the entire purchase journey that includes prepurchase activities that consist of increasing awareness of a need or wanting and seeking and evaluating information about products and services or brands that can satisfy it, and post-purchase activities that include evaluation and feedback on the purchased item. Many models have been created to explain and predict consumer behaviour. However, some criticisms have also been presented of the various models, such as the focus on rational reasoning and its lack of focus on subconscious factors, uncertainty and spontaneous choices. This research study explores the Theory of Belief Systems (TBS) and its application in understanding human behaviour, particularly in consumer behaviour, with the aim of developing a model based on TBS to enhance marketing strategies. The primary objective is to propose a model that incorporates uncertainty in predicting consumer behaviour, contributing to evidence-based marketing decisionmaking. Specific objectives include analysing consumer behaviour models in literature, exploring TBS, testing its capabilities in explaining human behaviour, and comparing results with other consumer behaviour theories. The study utilizes mathematical modelling, using the Theory of Belief Functions or Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST), to address gaps in existing consumer behaviour models, focusing on rational reasoning, subconscious factors, and decision-making uncertainty. Two empirical studies were conducted in the Douro region, one utilizing TBS and the other employing Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), to analyze and predict consumer behaviour in this specific context. Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) and software tools like R and JASP were employed for data analysis. The findings aim to provide insights for improving marketing activities through a deeper understanding of consumer behaviour. The empirical studies conducted in this research offer practical applications of TBS in real-world scenarios, demonstrating its efficacy in predicting and understanding consumer behaviour. By conducting in-depth investigations into the intricacies of belief systems and their impact on consumer decision-making processes, this research sheds light on the differences between TBS and TPB, elucidating the contexts in which each theory excels and providing valuable insights for researchers and practitioners in the field of marketing.