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- Societal risks of the end of physical cashPublication . Almeida, Pedro De; Fazendeiro, Paulo; Inácio, Pedro R. M.Cash, standardized physical tokens that represent economic value, has been a key instrument in the evolution of human civilizations for around 3000 years. However in the last few decades cash has been progressively losing its preeminence in favour of electronic handling of money transactions. The shift to a cashless society, in which physical money is completely or almost completely replaced by electronic records is on the horizon. Regardless of its advantages and disadvantages, electronic handling of money needs the support of a complex technological infrastructure which operation depends on many factors. This paper discusses this subject in detail, identifies the main threats linked to electronic money handling and evaluates their possible impacts on societies that no longer rely on cash.
- Using Data Mining with Time Series Data in Short-Term Stocks Prediction: A Literature ReviewPublication . Azevedo, José Manuel; Almeida, Rui M.P.; Almeida, Pedro DeData Mining (DM) methods are being increasingly used in prediction with time series data, in addition to traditional statistical approaches. This paper presents a literature review of the use of DM with time series data, focusing on short- time stocks prediction. This is an area that has been attracting a great deal of attention from researchers in the field. The main contribution of this paper is to provide an outline of the use of DM with time series data, using mainly examples related with short-term stocks prediction. This is important to a better understanding of the field. Some of the main trends and open issues will also be introduced.
- Two centuries of economic growth: international evidence on deepness and steepnessPublication . Fuinhas, José Alberto; Marques, António Cardoso; Almeida, Pedro De; Nogueira, David do Coito; Branco, TâniaThis paper focuses on more than two centuries of annual data. It applies the coefficient of skewness and the triples test, in order to detect the presence of deepness and steepness asymmetries in the real GDP per capita of thirty-one countries. By considering a large set of countries over periods starting from 1800, 1820, 1850, 1870, and 1900 and ending in 2010, the robustness of results was addressed. Both tests reveal the scarcity of international evidence of deepness asymmetry, but point to evidence of negative steepness for several countries. In fact, this negative steepness asymmetry supports the view that phases of expansions last longer than the phases of contraction in the business cycle, and this assumption is true for long time spans. Disregarding asymmetric features of economic growth could result in misconstrued economic policies, resulting from crucial failures to predict turning points in the business cycle.