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Os determinantes do investimento das PME's portuguesas
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Neste estudo, com base numa amostra de PME´s Portuguesas estudamos os determinantes do investimento em contexto de PME´s. Como determinantes do investimento consideramos: 1) investimento do período anterior, 2) as vendas, 3) os cash-flows, 4) o endividamento, 5) a idade, 6) as oportunidades de investimento, 7) taxas de juro, e 8) Produto Interno Bruto. Após a revisão da literatura, procedemos à apresentação dos resultados empíricos. Inicialmente, estudamos os determinantes do investimento independentemente da sua idade e do nível de investimento das PME´s. Numa segunda fase, estudamos as diferenças nos determinantes do investimento de PME´s jovens e PME´s velhas, independentemente do nível de investimento das PME´s. Numa terceira fase, estudamos as diferenças nos determinantes do investimento das PME´s com níveis inferiores e superiores de investimento, independentemente da sua idade. Finalmente, numa quarta fase, estudamos conjuntamente os efeitos da idade e do nível de investimento sobre as relações que se estabelecem entre determinantes e investimento das PME´s. Metodologicamente, recorremos a uma amostra de 1845 PME´s Portuguesas, das quais 495 são jovens e 1350 são velhas. Para estimarmos os resultados, com o objectivo de evitarmos o possível enviesamento dos resultados, consequência da problemática da sobrevivência, recorremos ao método de estimação em dois passos proposto por Heckman (1979). Numa primeira fase, estimamos regressões probit com o objectivo de estimarmos o The Inverse Mill´s Ratio, variável esta que será usada na segunda fase das estimações aquando da estimação das relações entre determinantes e investimento. Numa segunda fase, recorremos a estimadores dinâmicos de painel por forma a estimarmos as relações entre determinantes e investimento, para a totalidade de PME´s independentemente da sua idade e nível de investimento, e para verificarmos as diferenças nas relações entre determinantes e investimento das PME´s jovens e PME´s velhas, recorrendo a regressões de quantis para determinarmos as diferenças nos determinantes do investimento das PME´s com níveis inferiores e superiores de investimento, e para verificarmos a influência conjunta da idade e do nível de investimento sobre as relações que se estabelecem entre determinantes e investimento das PME´s. Para a totalidade de PME´s, sem considerar a influência da idade e do nível de investimento sobre as relações que se estabelecem entre determinantes e investimento, verificamos que: 1) o investimento do período anterior, os cash-flows, e o Produto Interno Bruto, são determinantes impulsionadores do investimento das PME´s; 2) o endividamento, e as taxas de juro, são determinantes restritivos do investimento das PME´s; e 3) as vendas, a idade, e as oportunidades de crescimento, não são determinantes impulsionadores, nem restritivos, do investimento das PME´s. No que concerne às diferenças nas relações entre determinantes e investimento das PME´s jovens e PME´s velhas, as múltiplas evidências empíricas obtidas permitemnos concluir que se verificam diferenças significativas nos determinantes do investimento das PME´s jovens e PME´s velhas: 1) os cash-flows, a idade, as oportunidades de crescimento, e o Produto Nacional Bruto, assumem maior importância relativa para o aumento do investimento das PME´s jovens, comparativamente ao que sucede no contexto das PME´s velhas; 2) as vendas assumem maior importância relativa para o aumento do investimento das PME´s velhas, comparativamente ao que sucede no contexto das PME´s jovens; e 3) o endividamento e a taxa de juro assumem maior importância para a diminuição do investimento das PME´s jovens, comparativamente ao que sucede no contexto das PME´s velhas. Os resultados respeitantes às diferenças nas relações entre determinantes e investimento das PME´s com níveis inferiores e superiores de investimento, indicamnos que: 1) as vendas, a idade e as oportunidades de crescimento são determinantes restritivos do investimento para níveis inferiores de investimento, mas determinantes impulsionadores do investimento para níveis superiores de investimento; 2) o endividamento, e as taxas de juro são determinantes restritivos do investimento mas somente para níveis inferiores de investimento; 3) os cash-flows são determinante impulsionador do investimento, mas assumem maior importância relativa para o aumento do investimento para níveis inferiores de investimento; 4) o Produto Interno Bruto é determinante impulsionador do investimento, mas somente para níveis superiores de investimento; e 5) o investimento do período anterior é determinante impulsionador do investimento no período actual, mas somente para níveis superiores de investimento. Finalmente, as evidências empíricas obtidas para a influência conjunta da idade e do nível de investimento sobre as relações que se estabelecem entre determinantes e investimento, indicam-nos que: 1) para as PME´s jovens com níveis superiores de investimento verificamos a particular importância do investimento do período anterior, do endividamento, da idade, e das oportunidades de crescimento como determinantes potenciadores do investimento; e 2) para os restantes tipos de PME´s destaca-se a importância dos cash-flows como determinante impulsionador do investimento, e as taxas de juro como determinante restritivo investimento das PME´s jovens com níveis inferiores de investimento, assim como o facto do endividamento e das oportunidades de crescimentos serem determinantes restritivos do investimento das PME´s velhas, e as vendas serem determinante impulsionador do investimento das PME´s velhas com níveis superiores de investimento. As múltiplas evidências empíricas permitem-nos concluir que a idade e o nível de investimento das PME´s têm influência significativa na aplicabilidade das diversas teorias explicativas do investimento, nomeadamente a teoria Neoclássica, a teoria dos Cash-flows Livres, e a teoria da Agência, às relações que se estabelecem entre determinantes e investimento das PME´s Portuguesas.
In this study, based on a sample of Portuguese SMEs, we examine the determinants of the investment in SMEs’ context. As determinants of the investment, we consider: 1) investment of the previous period, 2) sales, 3) cash-flows, 4) leverage, 5) age, 6) investment opportunities, 7) interest rates, and 8) Gross Domestic Product (GDP). After reviewing the literature, we proceed to the presentation of the empirical results. At first, we examine the determinants of the investment, regardless of their age and the investment level of the SMEs. In a second phase, we examine the differences in the investment determinants of young and old SMEs, apart from the SMEs’ level of investment. In a third phase, we examine the differences in the investment determinants of SMEs with lower and higher levels of investment, in spite of their age. Finally, in a fourth phase, we on the whole examine the age effects and the investment level in the relations established between the determinants and the investment of SMEs. Methodologically, we turn to a sample of 1845 Portuguese SMEs, from which 495 are young and 1350 are old. To estimate the results, with the purpose of avoiding possible bias of the results (a consequence of the problematic of survival), we turn to the two-step estimation method proposed by Heckman (1979). In a first phase, we estimate probit regressions with the purpose of estimating The Inverse Mill’s Ratio, a variable that will be used in the second phase of the calculations by the time of the calculation of the relations between determinants and investment. In a second phase, we turn to dynamic panel estimation in order to estimate the relations between the determinants and the investment for the totality of SMEs, regardless of their age and investment level, and to verify the differences in the relations between the determinants and the investment of the young and old SMEs, turning to quantiles regressions to determine the differences in the determinants of the investment of the SMEs with lower and higher levels of investment, and to verify the whole influence of age and the level of investment over the relations established between the determinants and SMEs’ investment. For the totality of the SMEs, without considering the influence of age and the investment level over the relations established between determinants and investment, we notice that: 1) the investment of the previous period, the cash-flows, and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are stimulating determinants of the SMEs’ investment; 2) leverage and interest rates are restrictive determinants of the SMEs’ investment; and 3)sales, age and the growth opportunities are neither stimulating determinants, nor restrictive of the SMEs’ investment. As far as the differences in the relations between determinants and investment of young and old SMEs are concerned, the multiple empirical evidences obtained allow us to conclude that there are significant differences in the determinants of the investment of young and old SMEs : 1) cash-flows, age, the growth opportunities and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) assume bigger relative importance to the increase of investment of young SMEs [PMEs], comparing to what happens in the context of old SMEs; 2) the sales assume a bigger relative importance to the increase of investment of old SMEs, comparing to what happens in the context of the young SMEs; 3) leverage and the interest rate assume a bigger importance to the investment diminishing of young SMEs, comparing to what happens in the context of old SMEs [PMEs]. The results with regard to the differences in the relations between determinants and the investment of the SMEs with lower and higher levels of investment indicate that: 1) sales, age and the growth opportunities are restrictive determinants of the investment for lower levels of investment, but stimulating determinants of the investment for higher levels of investment; 2) leverage and rates of interest are restrictive determinants of the investment but only for lower levels; 3) cash-flows are stimulating determinants of the investment, but they assume a bigger relative importance to the increase of the investment for lower levels of investment; 4) the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a stimulating determinant of the investment, but only for higher levels of investment; and 5) the investment of the previous period is a stimulating determinant of the investment in the present period, but only for higher levels of investment. Finally, the empirical evidences obtained for the entire influence of age and the investment level over the relations established between determinants and investment indicate us that: 1) for young SMEs with higher levels of investment we confirm the exact importance of the investment of the previous period, of leverage, age, and growth opportunities as enhancing determinants of the investment; and 2) for the reminding types of SMEs we point about the importance of cash-flows as a stimulating determinant of the investment, and the interest rates as restrictive determinant of the investment of young SMEs with lower levels of investment, as well as the fact that leverage and the growth opportunities are restrictive determinants of the investment of old SMEs, and the sales a stimulating determinant of the investment of old SMEs with higher levels of investment. The multiple empirical evidences allow us to conclude that age and the investment level of the SMEs have a significant influence on the applicability of the several explicative theories of investment (namely the Neoclassical Theory, the Free Cash-Flow Theory, and the Agency Theory) to relations established between determinants and investment of Portuguese SMEs.
In this study, based on a sample of Portuguese SMEs, we examine the determinants of the investment in SMEs’ context. As determinants of the investment, we consider: 1) investment of the previous period, 2) sales, 3) cash-flows, 4) leverage, 5) age, 6) investment opportunities, 7) interest rates, and 8) Gross Domestic Product (GDP). After reviewing the literature, we proceed to the presentation of the empirical results. At first, we examine the determinants of the investment, regardless of their age and the investment level of the SMEs. In a second phase, we examine the differences in the investment determinants of young and old SMEs, apart from the SMEs’ level of investment. In a third phase, we examine the differences in the investment determinants of SMEs with lower and higher levels of investment, in spite of their age. Finally, in a fourth phase, we on the whole examine the age effects and the investment level in the relations established between the determinants and the investment of SMEs. Methodologically, we turn to a sample of 1845 Portuguese SMEs, from which 495 are young and 1350 are old. To estimate the results, with the purpose of avoiding possible bias of the results (a consequence of the problematic of survival), we turn to the two-step estimation method proposed by Heckman (1979). In a first phase, we estimate probit regressions with the purpose of estimating The Inverse Mill’s Ratio, a variable that will be used in the second phase of the calculations by the time of the calculation of the relations between determinants and investment. In a second phase, we turn to dynamic panel estimation in order to estimate the relations between the determinants and the investment for the totality of SMEs, regardless of their age and investment level, and to verify the differences in the relations between the determinants and the investment of the young and old SMEs, turning to quantiles regressions to determine the differences in the determinants of the investment of the SMEs with lower and higher levels of investment, and to verify the whole influence of age and the level of investment over the relations established between the determinants and SMEs’ investment. For the totality of the SMEs, without considering the influence of age and the investment level over the relations established between determinants and investment, we notice that: 1) the investment of the previous period, the cash-flows, and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are stimulating determinants of the SMEs’ investment; 2) leverage and interest rates are restrictive determinants of the SMEs’ investment; and 3)sales, age and the growth opportunities are neither stimulating determinants, nor restrictive of the SMEs’ investment. As far as the differences in the relations between determinants and investment of young and old SMEs are concerned, the multiple empirical evidences obtained allow us to conclude that there are significant differences in the determinants of the investment of young and old SMEs : 1) cash-flows, age, the growth opportunities and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) assume bigger relative importance to the increase of investment of young SMEs [PMEs], comparing to what happens in the context of old SMEs; 2) the sales assume a bigger relative importance to the increase of investment of old SMEs, comparing to what happens in the context of the young SMEs; 3) leverage and the interest rate assume a bigger importance to the investment diminishing of young SMEs, comparing to what happens in the context of old SMEs [PMEs]. The results with regard to the differences in the relations between determinants and the investment of the SMEs with lower and higher levels of investment indicate that: 1) sales, age and the growth opportunities are restrictive determinants of the investment for lower levels of investment, but stimulating determinants of the investment for higher levels of investment; 2) leverage and rates of interest are restrictive determinants of the investment but only for lower levels; 3) cash-flows are stimulating determinants of the investment, but they assume a bigger relative importance to the increase of the investment for lower levels of investment; 4) the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a stimulating determinant of the investment, but only for higher levels of investment; and 5) the investment of the previous period is a stimulating determinant of the investment in the present period, but only for higher levels of investment. Finally, the empirical evidences obtained for the entire influence of age and the investment level over the relations established between determinants and investment indicate us that: 1) for young SMEs with higher levels of investment we confirm the exact importance of the investment of the previous period, of leverage, age, and growth opportunities as enhancing determinants of the investment; and 2) for the reminding types of SMEs we point about the importance of cash-flows as a stimulating determinant of the investment, and the interest rates as restrictive determinant of the investment of young SMEs with lower levels of investment, as well as the fact that leverage and the growth opportunities are restrictive determinants of the investment of old SMEs, and the sales a stimulating determinant of the investment of old SMEs with higher levels of investment. The multiple empirical evidences allow us to conclude that age and the investment level of the SMEs have a significant influence on the applicability of the several explicative theories of investment (namely the Neoclassical Theory, the Free Cash-Flow Theory, and the Agency Theory) to relations established between determinants and investment of Portuguese SMEs.
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Nível de investimento Pequenas e médias empresas