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Abstract(s)
Considerando a relevĂąncia que a atividade econĂłmica empresarial exerce na economia e
os mĂșltiplos e significativos impactos das insolvĂȘncias, a presente investigação visa
desenvolver um modelo sustentado em indicadores financeiros capaz de prever a
insolvĂȘncia empresarial num horizonte temporal de cinco anos.
Com base numa amostra inicial, emparelhada e equilibrada, constituĂda por 287
empresas insolventes e 287 empresas em atividade, esta investigação tem como objetivo
geral concluir acerca da informação financeira relevante para a previsĂŁo da insolvĂȘncia,
de modo a investigar uma resposta possĂvel ao seguinte questionamento: Ă© possĂvel
prever, com antecedĂȘncia, a insolvĂȘncia empresarial com base na informação financeira?
Utilizando a anĂĄlise de regressĂŁo logĂstica, foram analisados os indicadores financeiros
considerados relevantes na literatura, por forma a averiguar a sua aplicabilidade ao
tecido empresarial portuguĂȘs.
Considering the relevance that business economic activity has on the economy and the multiple and significant impacts of insolvencies, this research aims to develop a model based on financial indicators capable of predicting business insolvency over a five-year time horizon. Based on a initial paired and balanced sample, consisting of 287 insolvent companies and 287 active companies, this investigation has the general objective of concluding on the financial information relevant to the insolvency forecast, in order to investigate a possible answer to the following question: is it possible to anticipate corporate insolvency on the basis of financial information? Using the logistic regression analysis, the financial indicators considered relevant by the literature were analyzed, in order to ascertain their susceptibility to application to the portuguese business.
Considering the relevance that business economic activity has on the economy and the multiple and significant impacts of insolvencies, this research aims to develop a model based on financial indicators capable of predicting business insolvency over a five-year time horizon. Based on a initial paired and balanced sample, consisting of 287 insolvent companies and 287 active companies, this investigation has the general objective of concluding on the financial information relevant to the insolvency forecast, in order to investigate a possible answer to the following question: is it possible to anticipate corporate insolvency on the basis of financial information? Using the logistic regression analysis, the financial indicators considered relevant by the literature were analyzed, in order to ascertain their susceptibility to application to the portuguese business.
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Keywords
InsolvĂȘncia Liquidação PrevisĂŁo de InsolvĂȘncia RegressĂŁo LogĂstica Stress Financeiro