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Abstract(s)
A presente dissertação tem como objetivo verificar as relações entre os preços de carbono e as principais variáveis de energia relacionadas: eletricidade e gás natural; considerando ainda o papel da performance da economia. A determinação dos preços diários de carbono no regime de comércios de emissões da União Europeia, durante a 1ª Fase com obrigações de limites de emissões, é importante para a continuação do mercado na Fase III, pós-Quioto 2013-2020. Assim, este estudo considera o espaço de tempo da Fase II do mercado europeu de licenças de emissões 2008-2012.
Segue a metodologia de análise de causalidade de Granger, a partir do trabalho de Keppler (2010). Os resultados confirmam, em parte, resultados prévios já conhecidos apontando para uma possível relação de causalidade unidirecional entre o preço do Gás Natural e Eletricidade e ainda entre a economia e os preços de Gás Natural. São apresentadas algumas evidências de que o preço do carbono não é atualmente influenciado pelas variáveis consideradas, muito possivelmente devido aos baixos preços atuais do carbono.
This thesis intends to determine the relationship between carbon prices and the main related energy variables: electricity and natural gas, without forgetting the role of economic performance. The determination of daily carbon prices in the trading scheme of European Union, during the 1st phase, with imposition of emission limits, is important for the continuation of the market in a 3rd phase, post-Kyoto, 2013-2020. The present study is focused in the 2008-2020 timeline, considered the 2nd phase of European market for emission licenses, following the Granger methodology of causalities analysis, from Keppler’s work (2010). The results confirm, in part, the previous known results that indicated a possible unidirectional relationship of causality between the natural gas and electricity, as well as between the economic performance and the natural gas prices. It was also presented evidences that today’s prices of carbon, possibly due to their low prices, are not influenced by the variables considered.
This thesis intends to determine the relationship between carbon prices and the main related energy variables: electricity and natural gas, without forgetting the role of economic performance. The determination of daily carbon prices in the trading scheme of European Union, during the 1st phase, with imposition of emission limits, is important for the continuation of the market in a 3rd phase, post-Kyoto, 2013-2020. The present study is focused in the 2008-2020 timeline, considered the 2nd phase of European market for emission licenses, following the Granger methodology of causalities analysis, from Keppler’s work (2010). The results confirm, in part, the previous known results that indicated a possible unidirectional relationship of causality between the natural gas and electricity, as well as between the economic performance and the natural gas prices. It was also presented evidences that today’s prices of carbon, possibly due to their low prices, are not influenced by the variables considered.
Description
Keywords
Causalidade de Granger Carbono