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Abstract(s)
A análise aos efeitos da globalização no crescimento económico quer em países ricos como em pobres tem vindo a ganhar espaço na literatura do crescimento económico. Neste estudo é possível verificar alguns impactos da globalização no crescimento económico dependendo do nível de rendimentos do país. Este estudo é feito com um painel de dados balanceado segundo a metodologia de Autorregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), com um horizonte temporal relativamente grande 1970-2013 de forma a verificar os efeitos dos três indicadores de globalização do indicador Konjunkturforschungsstelle (KOF) no crescimento económico. Os países que compõem os painéis de dados estão de acordo com os diferentes níveis de rendimento - país definidos pelo banco mundial. O objetivo desta análise é tentar verificar se, de acordo com o nível de rendimentos de cada país, estes terão um comportamento diferente relativamente aos efeitos da globalização no crescimento económico. Os principais resultados mostram que nos países com rendimentos mais altos, a globalização económica tem efeitos positivos e estatisticamente significantes no curto e no longo prazo. De facto, é também a única elasticidade presente no longo prazo, as outras vertentes da globalização não têm qualquer impacto nos países de rendimentos altos à exceção da globalização politica. A globalização politica tem um impacto negativo e estatisticamente significante no curto prazo nestes países. Os restantes países ainda que de diferentes níveis de rendimentos, rendimentos médio altos e medio baixos/baixos apresentam resultados semelhantes entre si, apenas têm a globalização social com elasticidade tanto no curto como no longo prazo. Estas apresentam ser positivas e estatisticamente significantes. Estes resultados poderão ajudar a desenhar melhores politicas para cada tipo de economia dependendo do seu nível de rendimentos.
The discussion about effects of globalization on economic growth in rich and poor countries has been winning an important role in economic growth literature. In this study, it is possible to verify some of the effects from globalization on economic growth depending on the country’s income. It develops an ARDL Balanced Panel with a long time span 1970-2013 to verify the effects of three different KOF indicators of globalization on economic growth. A panel ARDL was chosen because this allows for long- and short-run effects. So, it was made with three different country income levels following the World Bank Definition. The aim of this analysis is verifying if according each different types of income country could have different behaviours from globalization to economic growth. The results show that in high income countries, the economic globalization has a positive and significant impact in the short- and in the long-run. Indeed, in the long-run this is the only elasticity present, and the other kinds of globalizations do not have any effect on economic growth, except political globalization. Political globalization has a negative and significant effect on economic growth, but only in the short-run. The two other income types have similar results, i.e. only social globalization in the short- and long -run elasticities. These later impacts are positive and statistically significant. This results help policy makers to design better policies to improve their economies.
The discussion about effects of globalization on economic growth in rich and poor countries has been winning an important role in economic growth literature. In this study, it is possible to verify some of the effects from globalization on economic growth depending on the country’s income. It develops an ARDL Balanced Panel with a long time span 1970-2013 to verify the effects of three different KOF indicators of globalization on economic growth. A panel ARDL was chosen because this allows for long- and short-run effects. So, it was made with three different country income levels following the World Bank Definition. The aim of this analysis is verifying if according each different types of income country could have different behaviours from globalization to economic growth. The results show that in high income countries, the economic globalization has a positive and significant impact in the short- and in the long-run. Indeed, in the long-run this is the only elasticity present, and the other kinds of globalizations do not have any effect on economic growth, except political globalization. Political globalization has a negative and significant effect on economic growth, but only in the short-run. The two other income types have similar results, i.e. only social globalization in the short- and long -run elasticities. These later impacts are positive and statistically significant. This results help policy makers to design better policies to improve their economies.
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Keywords
Crescimento Económico Globalização Painel- Ardl