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Abstract(s)
As relações entre as fontes de eletricidade e a produção industrial na Estónia e Suécia são analisadas com base em dados mensais no espaço temporal de Janeiro de 2010 a Outubro de 2014. Estes países revelam particular interesse de estudo por pertencerem ao Nord Pool Spot, mercado energético que foi pioneiro a transacionar eletricidade e exemplo pela sua dimensão, tanto ao nível do número de países integrantes, como ao nível da sua quota de mercado. Aplica-se a abordagem ARDL, que permitiu capturar os efeitos de curto e longo prazo. No curto prazo verificámos que a eletricidade fóssil influência positivamente o crescimento económico tanto na Estónia como na Suécia. Já no longo prazo apenas se verifica esta influência na Estónia bem como uma influência do crescimento para com a eletricidade fóssil. Quanto à eletricidade renovável verificou-se para a Estónia hipóteses contrárias no curto e no longo prazo. No curto prazo a eletricidade renovável promove mais crescimento mas no longo prazo é o crescimento que promove mais eletricidade renovável. Já a Suécia tem tanto no curto como no longo prazo elasticidades negativas, o que quer dizer que a eletricidade renovável promove menos crescimento neste país. A eletricidade hídrica na Suécia sofre um efeito positivo por parte do crescimento económico no longo prazo, enquanto na Estónia não encontrámos relação entre esta fonte e o crescimento. No curto prazo, a eletricidade nuclear na Suécia e o crescimento apresentam uma relação bidirecional enquanto no longo prazo apenas o crescimento influencia a eletricidade nuclear. A Estónia deverá apoiar o desenvolvimento científico e tecnológico para a redução da emissão de poluentes na produção de eletricidade através do xisto betuminoso, bem como, promover políticas de redução do consumo de eletricidade e de eficiência energética de modo a que se possa abandonar parte do uso de eletricidade de fonte fóssil. Na Suécia as opções políticas devem passar pelo desenvolvimento tecnológico para o melhoramento dos sistemas hidroelétricos, bem como, a implementação de maior capacidade de armazenamento desta fonte.
The relationship between the sources of electricity and the industrial production in Estonia and Sweden are analyzed based on monthly data, between January 2010 and October 2014. These countries are particularly interesting to be studied because they belong to the Nord Pool Spot, a pioneering energy market to transact electricity and an example for its size, both for the number of countries belonging to it and also for the level of their market share. The ARDL model was applied, allowing to capture the long-run and short-run effects. In the short term we have found that the fossil source influence positively the economic growth in Estonia and also in Sweden. In the long term this influence is only in noticed in Estonia, as well as it is an influence of growth with fossil fuels. About renewable sources, it was found to Estonia divergent hypotheses in both short and long term. In the short term renewable sources promotes more growth, while in the long term is the growth that promotes more renewable sources. Sweden has both the short and long term negative elasticities, in this way renewable sources promotes less growth in this country. Hydropower in Sweden suffers a positive effect from the economic growth in the long term, while in Estonia we found no relationship between this source and growth. In the short term both nuclear source in Sweden and growth have a bidirectional relationship, while in the long term only the growth influences the nuclear source. Estonia should support scientific and technological development for reducing emissions of air pollutants in the production of electricity from oil shale and promote policies for the reduction of electricity consumption for one efficient energy, so they can leave part of the use of fossil source. In Sweden the policy options must go through the technological development and the improvement of hydroelectric systems, as well as the implementation of one larger storage capacity of this source.
The relationship between the sources of electricity and the industrial production in Estonia and Sweden are analyzed based on monthly data, between January 2010 and October 2014. These countries are particularly interesting to be studied because they belong to the Nord Pool Spot, a pioneering energy market to transact electricity and an example for its size, both for the number of countries belonging to it and also for the level of their market share. The ARDL model was applied, allowing to capture the long-run and short-run effects. In the short term we have found that the fossil source influence positively the economic growth in Estonia and also in Sweden. In the long term this influence is only in noticed in Estonia, as well as it is an influence of growth with fossil fuels. About renewable sources, it was found to Estonia divergent hypotheses in both short and long term. In the short term renewable sources promotes more growth, while in the long term is the growth that promotes more renewable sources. Sweden has both the short and long term negative elasticities, in this way renewable sources promotes less growth in this country. Hydropower in Sweden suffers a positive effect from the economic growth in the long term, while in Estonia we found no relationship between this source and growth. In the short term both nuclear source in Sweden and growth have a bidirectional relationship, while in the long term only the growth influences the nuclear source. Estonia should support scientific and technological development for reducing emissions of air pollutants in the production of electricity from oil shale and promote policies for the reduction of electricity consumption for one efficient energy, so they can leave part of the use of fossil source. In Sweden the policy options must go through the technological development and the improvement of hydroelectric systems, as well as the implementation of one larger storage capacity of this source.
Description
Keywords
Ardl Estónia Fontes de Eletricidade Fóssil Hídrica Nuclear Produção Industrial Renovável Suécia