Repository logo
 
Loading...
Profile Picture

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 6 of 6
  • On the Global Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus: a Long Time Span Analysis
    Publication . Marques, Luís Miguel; Fuinhas, José Alberto; Marques, António Cardoso
    There is plenty of research on the energy-growth nexus for individual countries and panels of countries, but none at a global level. For this reason, this paper aims to provide important information for energy policymakers. The global energy consumption and economic growth nexus was analyzed by using an annual time series from 1965 to 2013. An auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach was followed in the presence of permanent shocks (structural breaks). The ARDL bounds test, as well as both short- and long-run elasticities, was performed. Performing the Johansen co-integration and the Toda and Yamamoto causality testing procedure gives robustness to the results. The results suggest that there is bi-directional causality between energy consumption and growth, both in the short- and long-run. High and positive long-run elasticities were found. Accordingly, conservation policies on energy could reduce economic growth on a worldwide scale. In addition, policies could begin to have a cyclical effect, given that there is bidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth.
  • On the dynamics of energy-growth nexus: Evidence from a world divided into four regions
    Publication . Marques, Luís Miguel; Fuinhas, José Alberto; Marques, António Cardoso
    This paper provides a comparative analysis of the energy-growth nexus in different world regions by using an identical methodology for each one, thereby avoiding the usual problem of results varying due to the use of differing methodologies. To access data covering the entire world, four regions were used: (i) America (North and South); (ii) Europe and Central Asia; (iii) Asia Pacific; and (iv) Africa and the Middle East. Annual aggregated time series from 1968 to 2013, and an auto-regressive distributed lag approach were used. The results suggest that, in the long-run: (a) The “feedback hypothesis” is present in America and Asia Pacific; (b) the “conservation hypothesis” was found in Europe and Central Asia and in Africa and the Middle East. Moreover, the results suggest that historical events, such as the oil shocks of 1970 and 1980 and the 2008 financial crisis, have heterogenous impacts across the world.
  • Essays on globe energy consumption and economic growth nexus
    Publication . Marques, Luís Miguel Soares Santos; Fuinhas, José Alberto Serra Ferreira Rodrigues; Marques, António Manuel Cardoso
    The way that economic growth and energy consumption interact with each other has been a rising interest in the last few decades. The continuous globe economic growth and the shift in large energy demand to emerging economics such as India and China raise new challenges requiring study. Regarding this, the literature is scarce and the study of energy-growth nexus at higher macroeconomic levels has been overlooked. The worldwide changes occurring in energy markets are expected to raise interest in globe nexus. In order to evaluate the interactions between globe economic growth and energy consumption, bivariate and multivariate models were developed. The aim of this research in not only to examine both short- and long-run nexus behaviours, but also to identify how the energy policies that some countries can follow, or how the development of globalization can have an impact on a globe scale. Following this path, different variables were introduced as explanatory of globe economic growth and energy consumption. By developing four essays, the thesis seeks to raise awareness of the importance of understanding the impact of economic policy decisions at the globe level. The first two essays focus on studying the energy-growth nexus at the globe level and by dividing the globe into four regions, without interference from any other variables. The third and fourth essays introduce the concept of study of the globe augmented energy-growth nexus. Additionally, in the third essay, China’s economic growth and energy consumption were introduced as possible explanatory variables of economic growth and energy consumption through different globe regions. The fourth essay, examines the impact of different globalization dimensions on globe energy-growth nexus. The followed econometric approaches considered the data requirements as well as the predictable presence of structural breaks. Moreover, the aim to examine both the short- and the long-run relationships influenced the methodology choice. For those reasons, autoregressive models such as Autoregressive Distributed Model (ARDL), Vector Autoregression (VAR) or Vector Error Correction Model were developed by using time series and panel data. The results reveal a bidirectional relationship between globe economic growth and energy consumption. Moreover, the existence of heterogeneous relationships in different globe regions is proven to mostly not come from the use of different methodologies. Overall, the results support a path of diversification, not only on the used primary energy components, but also on economic outputs sources. It has also been proven that there are countries, such as China, that can influence the globe nexus. Regarding other factors influencing the globe nexus, it was observed that there are different globalization components impacting on globe economic growth and energy consumption.
  • Interação entre o mercado acionista e o produto: uma apreciação do caso português, 1993-2010
    Publication . Marques, Luís Miguel Soares Santos; Fuinhas, José Alberto Serra Ferreira Rodrigues; Marques, António Manuel Cardoso
    As relações entre o desenvolvimento do mercado acionista e o produto interno são testadas para Portugal num período de grande transformação económica (1993-2010). As dinâmicas são analisadas com recurso a um modelo VAR através de testes de causalidade à Granger, decomposição da variância e função impulso-resposta. Os resultados permitem concluir que o mercado acionista contribui positivamente para o crescimento. Conclui-se que o sistema bancário não é um fator determinante do crescimento económico. Não se detetou causalidade do crescimento económico para o desenvolvimento do mercado acionista.
  • Augmented energy-growth nexus: economic, political and social globalization impacts
    Publication . Marques, Luís Miguel; Fuinhas, José Alberto; Marques, António Cardoso
    The augmented energy-growth nexus with globalization is analyzed for a panel of 43 countries between 1971 to 2013, by using na autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The impacts of economic, political and social globalization on energy-growth nexus are explored. The results are consistent with the presence of cointegration. Evidences of the traditional feedback hypothesis on the energy-growth nexus was found. Economic, political and social globalization have heterogenous impacts on the nexus. In general, globalization is a long-run driver of both energy consumption and economic growth. Accordingly, globalization should be promoted. In addition, restrictive energy policies should be avoided or carefully designed to no hamper economic growth.
  • Does the stock market cause economic growth? Portuguese evidence of economic regime change
    Publication . Marques, Luís Miguel; Fuinhas, José Alberto; Marques, António Cardoso
    The relationship between stock market and economic growth is tested for Portugal (1993–2011), which is a small open economy dependent on bank financing. The relationship between economic growth and bank financing is also appraised. Using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modeling, Granger causality, variance decomposition and impulse response function are discussed. The physical replacement of the currency, as a consequence of the integration in the European Monetary Union, proves to be an economic regime change. The effect of the subprime crisis was also proved. There is evidence of Granger bidirectional causality between the stock market and economic growth. Meanwhile, there was no evidence of causality running from bank financing to economic growth.