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A reforma do sistema eleitoral português -Experimentos face às eleições legislativas entre 2015 e 2025
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Abstract(s)
As assimetrias identificadas na conversão de votos em mandatos, resultantes da
aplicação do método de D´Hondt em círculos de magnitude desigual, têm alimentado o
debate persistente sobre a necessidade de reformar o sistema eleitoral português.
Embora o modelo assente formalmente numa lógica proporcional, os seus efeitos
práticos revelam distorções sistemáticas que favorecem partidos maiores e dificultam a
representação de forças minoritárias.
A presente dissertação procurou responder à questão central: qual o impacto da
estrutura e da magnitude dos círculos eleitorais sobre o processo de conversão de votos
em mandatos em Portugal entre 2015 e 2025? Para tal, foram analisadas cinco eleições
legislativas consecutivas, combinando a leitura empírica dos resultados oficiais com
simulações alternativas baseadas na aplicação do método de Sainte-Laguë e na hipótese
de um círculo nacional único.
A análise mobilizou indicadores de desproporcionalidade, desperdício de votos,
fragmentação partidária e taxas de abstenção por círculo eleitoral. Os resultados
confirmam a persistência de desequilíbrios representativos e a influência estrutural da
magnitude distrital, evidenciando tensões entre representatividade e governabilidade.
Este estudo contribui, assim, para o debate sobre a reforma do sistema eleitoral
português e reforça a sua relevância enquanto caso de estudo no quadro da ciência
política comparada.
The asymmetries identified in the conversion of votes into seats, resulting from the application of the D'Hondt method in districts of unequal magnitude, have fuelled the ongoing debate on the need to reform the portuguese electoral system. Although the model is formally based on proportional logic, its practical effects reveal systematic distortions that favour larger parties and hinder the representation of smaller ones. This dissertation sought to answer the central question: what is the impact of the structure and magnitude of electoral districts on the process of converting votes into seats in Portugal between 2015 and 2025? To this end, five consecutive legislative elections were analysed, combining an empirical reading of the official results with alternative simulations based on the application of the Sainte-Laguë method and the hypothesis of a single national constituency. The analysis employed indicators of disproportionality, wasted votes, party fragmentation and abstention rates by district. The results confirm the persistence of representative imbalances and the structural influence of district magnitude, highlighting tensions between representativeness and governability. This study thus contributes to the debate on the reform of the portuguese electoral system and reinforces its relevance as a case study within comparative political science.
The asymmetries identified in the conversion of votes into seats, resulting from the application of the D'Hondt method in districts of unequal magnitude, have fuelled the ongoing debate on the need to reform the portuguese electoral system. Although the model is formally based on proportional logic, its practical effects reveal systematic distortions that favour larger parties and hinder the representation of smaller ones. This dissertation sought to answer the central question: what is the impact of the structure and magnitude of electoral districts on the process of converting votes into seats in Portugal between 2015 and 2025? To this end, five consecutive legislative elections were analysed, combining an empirical reading of the official results with alternative simulations based on the application of the Sainte-Laguë method and the hypothesis of a single national constituency. The analysis employed indicators of disproportionality, wasted votes, party fragmentation and abstention rates by district. The results confirm the persistence of representative imbalances and the structural influence of district magnitude, highlighting tensions between representativeness and governability. This study thus contributes to the debate on the reform of the portuguese electoral system and reinforces its relevance as a case study within comparative political science.
Description
Keywords
Círculos Eleitorais Magnitude Eleitoral
Reformas Eleitorais Representação Política Sistema Eleitoral Português Sistemas Eleitorais