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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
1This paper focuses on analyzing the impact of the consequences of monetary union on
GDP volatility in Portugal. Using quarterly data from 1978:01 to 2009:04, we test the output
composition effect and the correlation effect through three alternative approaches of volatility:
year on year, quarter on quarter and the value of output gap. Results support the presence of
the composition effect. Overall, the average covariance has played a relevant role in lowering
volatility. Evidence also indicates that there is a regime shift near the years 1992-3, while both
European Union membership and participation in the euro area contribute towards smoothing
the economy. The decreasing path of volatility was slightly reversed after the country became
a euro area member.
Description
Keywords
Macroeconomic volatility Output composition effect Correlation effect