Faculdade de Ciências Sociais e Humanas
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Browsing Faculdade de Ciências Sociais e Humanas by advisor "Afonso, Tiago Jorge Lopes"
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- Carbon leakage and energy transition: essays on foreign direct investment, sustainable development, and international tradePublication . Caetano, Rafaela Vital ; Marques, António Manuel Cardoso; Afonso, Tiago Jorge LopesThe ever-pressing quest for climate action and the consequent enlargement of environmental restrictions is reshaping current Global Value Chains (GVCs) and international trade patterns. As economic integration continues to evolve, there is evidence of international movements (investment and goods) towards the development of trade blocs with a concentration of pollution-intensive industries in developing countries, alongside significant deindustrialisation processes in many developed countries. As integration into GVCs has progressed, developing countries have found themselves further upstream, hosting polluting industries from developed countries (mainly through Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)), with the latter leading the way in climate action. But at what cost? In fact, the cost advantages emerging in developing countries are apparently coming at the expense of environmental quality. In addition, these movements have increased the external dependence of developed countries. Unprecedented global health and geopolitical crises have revealed the drawbacks of being highly integrated into GVCs. These drawbacks include the perceived concerns about countries’ sovereignty, undermined international competitiveness, and threatened fulfilment of consumer needs owing to potential supply shortages. These issues motivated the development of this thesis, which aims to gain a deeper understanding of what underpins the external dependence of developed countries and how it can be eased. To this end, seven empirical essays were developed. Environmental regulation is a widely recognised driver in the relocation of polluting industries. Why, then, does some literature support the unlikely transfer of polluting industries to developed countries? In fact, such transfers have been sustained solely based on the polluting effect of FDI in recipient countries. This thesis provides empirical evidence indicating that the pollutant impact of FDI in recipient countries is generally accompanied by an increase in the overall energy demand, predominantly supplied by non-renewable sources. Hence, to accurately evaluate the environmental impacts of FDI, an analysis of the recipient countries’ energy mix diversification should be undertaken before endorsing the transfer of industries. This thesis also sheds light on the vital role of the energy transition in recipient countries in softening the polluting impact of FDI. It should be pointed out, however, that the results reveal a potential lack of energy infrastructure in developing countries, which makes it more challenging for these countries to benefit from the energy transition.In this regard, the main findings of this thesis indicate that private participation in energy infrastructure investment encourages the energy transition in developing countries and mitigates the pollution associated with FDI. The downstream production of “environmentally friendly goods” in developed countries appears to rely on the upstream production of intermediate goods in developing countries. Additionally, the imports of intermediate goods from developing countries seem strongly encouraged by outward FDI from developed countries. These facts underline the relevance of assessing the overall environmental impact of goods from their early production (including pollution embodied in imports of intermediate goods) until their consumption. In fact, by resorting to carbon leakage, developed countries can maintain their position as leaders in climate action by polluting considerably less through production while polluting through consumption. Hence, environmental performance should cease to be exclusively measured through production-based environmental indicators. This thesis, therefore, provides empirical evidence that the external dependence of developed countries is rooted in the carbon leakage phenomenon by assessing the overall environmental impacts that might underlie the carbon leakage phenomenon, namely from the moment the investment flows out of developed countries until the moment the manufactured goods return to those economies. The energy transition has proved to have a fundamental role not only in mitigating the polluting impact of FDI in recipient countries (first, second, third, and fourth essays), but also in determining international investment and trade flows (fifth, sixth, and seventh essays). Although it may be driving carbon leakage, environmental regulation has proven to effectively reduce the external dependence of developed countries. Even though it can be considered a non-tariff barrier, enforcing environmental restrictions poses considerably low risks of trade retaliation compared to import tariffs, which are more likely to inhibit the benefits of competition. Notwithstanding, this strategy should not be exclusive; the energy transition must be pursued in parallel. The energy transition should no longer be seen merely as the substitution of fossil-fuel energy sources for renewable ones. In fact, the energy transition can trigger and entail considerable structural changes, reversing the deindustrialisation trajectory of developed countries, thus contributing to the development of robust GVCs.
- The role of natural capital and economic openness in sustainable economic developmentPublication . Carneiro, Maria Margarida Monteiro; Afonso, Tiago Jorge Lopes; Marques, António Manuel CardosoSustainable economic development makes it possible to study the economy of a country as a whole, as it encompasses social parameters, environmental parameters, and economic parameters. Natural capital allows the environmental parameters of an economy to be studied, since it is characterized by encompassing all the natural resources, whether renewable natural resources or non-renewable natural resources, that economies have at their disposal. Economic openness facilitates the study of economic parameters, as it is characterized by trade between the various world economies. This study analyzes the role of natural capital and economic openness in sustainable economic development for 28 OECD countries. However, a comparison will be made of the results obtained for sustainable economic development with the results obtained for economic growth. These countries were selected because they are all developed and homogeneous countries, and also belong to a world organization that is concerned with economic development, therefore, they share many characteristics in common, such as common policies, future goals and moral values, this allows the results obtained not to be different. The study presents a dynamic panel, with annual data and a time horizon from 1995 to 2018. Since the study is composed of stationary variables in first differences and cointegrated with each other, the DOLS, FOLS and PMG estimators were used. These estimators allow the study of long-term relationships; the PMG estimator has the particularity of allowing the study of both long-term and short-term relationships. The results indicate that natural capital has long-term relationships with sustainable economic development, except for fossil energy, which did not show long-term relationships. Natural capital showed no short-term relationship with sustainable economic development. It was possible to verify in the results the existence of long-term relationships for all variables of natural capital to economic growth. However, as for the short-term relationships only two variables show a relationship with economic growth. As far as economic openness is concerned, there is a long-term relationship for both sustainable economic development and economic growth by the remaining variables. Looking at the short-term relationships, only three variables of economic openness show a relationship with economic growth, with sustainable economic development no variable does. Thus, it is assumed that the OECD countries show positive signs for optimal results in the future with regard to economic development. Since there is a long-term relationship between economic openness and sustainable economic development, the results showed that fossil energy has no impact on sustainable economic development, which was already expected. In order for OECD countries to perform better in sustainable economic development it is suggested that they stop using, and if that is not possible, reduce their consumption of fossil resources.
- Transmissão de risco e co-movimentos entre os mercados financeiros e os mercados de commoditiesPublication . Neves, Mateus Ferreira; Monteiro, João Dionísio; Afonso, Tiago Jorge LopesEste estudo tem como objetivo geral analisar as transmissões de risco e co-movimentos condicionais entre os mercados financeiros (países do G7 e China) e os mercados de commodities (Ouro e Petróleo) durante períodos de crises financeiras, nomeadamente a crise financeira global 2007-2009, a crise da divida soberana e a crise do Covid-19. É realizada uma análise comparativa de forma a compreender as diferenças, em termos de intensidade, entre crises financeiras endógenas e uma crise financeira exógena. Para além de analisar os padrões de transmissão de risco entre estes mercados durante os períodos de crises financeiras, são também utilizados procedimentos de análise de co-movimentos, para testar a hipótese de o Ouro ser um ativo de reserva de valor em tempos de incerteza. De forma a alcançar os objetivos estabelecidos para o presente estudo foram recolhidos para os três períodos em análise as cotações de fecho diárias dos principais índices acionistas dos mercados do G7 e da China, representados pelos índices CAC40, CSI300, DAX30, FTSE100, MIB, NIKKEI, TSX e S&P500. Para as commodities foram recolhidas as cotações de fecho diárias dos contratos de futuros para o Ouro, Brent e WTI (West Texas Intermediate). A análise dos processos de transmissão de risco entre os mercados acionistas e os mercados de commodities, mais concretamente os efeitos de co-volatilidade entre os mercados, é realizada recorrendo ao modelo BEKK-diagonal. De forma a examinar os co-movimentos de variações de preços entre os mercados acionistas nacionais e os mercados de commodities é utilizado o modelo DCC-MGARCH para analisar as correlações condicionais dinâmicas. Os resultados indicam que a crise Covid-19 (de natureza exógena à economia), face às crises endógenas, foi a que apresentou maiores intensidades de transmissão de risco entre os índices financeiros e os mercados do petróleo. Relativamente às transmissões entre os índices financeiros e o mercado do Ouro, foi durante a crise financeira global 2007-2009 que a maioria dos países verificaram as maiores intensidades de transmissão de risco. Os resultados mostram que os níveis de transmissão de risco verificados entre os mercados financeiros e o mercado do petróleo são sempre superiores aos valores verificados entre os mercados financeiros e o mercado do Ouro. A hipótese de o Ouro ser um bom ativo de reserva de valor em tempos de incerteza foi rejeitada dado que em nenhum período se verificaram correlações condicionais médias negativas ou nulas entre o Ouro e os mercados financeiros. No entanto o Ouro apresenta-se como um ativo com melhores características para diversificação do portefólio comparativamente ao petróleo. Os resultados desta pesquisa contribuem para uma melhor compreensão dos efeitos de transmissão de risco entre o mercado do Ouro, do Petróleo e dos mercados financeiros em diferentes situações de crise. São de elevado interesse para os vários agentes económicos porque podem oferecer informação relevante na construção de modelos eficientes de mitigação do risco e na implementação de políticas apropriadas em períodos de stress económico.
- Transmissão de volatilidade e co-movimentos entre mercados financeiros e o mercado petrolíferoPublication . Caroça, Eduardo Lopes; Monteiro, João Dionísio; Afonso, Tiago Jorge LopesEsta dissertação, utiliza a abordagem de modelos multivariados GARCH, baseada em dois modelos, o DCC-GARCH e o BEKK-Diagonal GARCH, por forma a examinar os mecanismos de transmissão de risco e de co-movimentos existentes entre os mercados acionistas das sete maiores economias mundiais (países do G7) e da China e o mercado petrolífero. Estes modelos permitem analisar, num contexto multivariado, as interações entre os mercados financeiros e do petróleo e, assim, extrair o sinal, magnitude e significância dos fluxos de informação e correspondentes transmissões de risco e comovimentos entre mercados. São levados a cabo testes de raízes unitárias por forma a verificar a existência de (não) estacionaridade das séries e, em conformidade, utilizar os modelos de regressão multivariados adequados (i.e., VAR ou VECM) para modelar a média condicional da variável dependente. Neste sentido, são também realizados testes de cointegração das séries. De seguida, os dois modelos GARCH multivariados, o BEKK-diagonal e o DCCGARCH, são aplicados para analisar as volatilidades e as co-volatilidades das séries dos resíduos das equações das médias condicionais dos vários modelos. Os resultados empíricos sugerem a existência do efeito de proximidade geográfica na magnitude e significância dos co-movimentos existentes entre mercados financeiros, i.e., quanto maior a proximidade geográfica entre mercados financeiros maior tende a ser a magnitude dos co-movimentos entre estes. Por outro lado, o efeito da proximidade geográfica também tende a revelar-se na intensidade de transmissão de informação (risco) entre mercados. Quanto aos pares de relações entre os mercados financeiros e o mercado petrolífero, os resultados mostram que o grau de co-movimentos entre estes é menor, observando-se muitos casos em que os valores médios das correlações condicionais dinâmicas não se mostram estatisticamente significativos, sugerindo que o volume de transmissão de informação e risco entre estes mercados é significativamente menor.