FCSH - DGE | Dissertações de Mestrado e Teses de Doutoramento
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- Essays on Economic Growth and Socio-Economic Development: An Exploration of Interrelated Factors and Policy ImplicationsPublication . Oliveira, Henrique Viana Espinosa de; Moutinho, Vítor Manuel Ferreira; Afonso, Oscar João AtanázioThis doctoral thesis undertakes a comprehensive analysis of economic growth and socio-economic development, addressing two pivotal aspects of any economy. The research explores this relationship by considering factors beyond production, notably the consumption of both renewable and non-renewable energies, to assess the presence of a genuine and effective energy transition toward a more harmonious coexistence of economic and environmental concerns. Institutional variables are also incorporated into the analysis to understand their contributions and diagnostic relevance. The thesis is structured into two primary approaches: a theoretical review and an empirical investigation. In the theoretical approach, a rigorous literature review is conducted, serving as the foundation for the empirical segment of the study. Through a systematic review of articles related to Renewable Energy, Economic Growth, and Economic Development published between 2008 and May 2021, using the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Itens for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) methodology, a sample of 111 articles from Web of Science and 199 academic articles from Scopus is assembled. The analysis of these articles underscores the predominance of quantitative methodologies within the field of economic sciences. Moreover, it reveals a growing trend in research on this subject, particularly in post-2015 publications. China emerges as the leading contributor to this body of work, with the journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews holding significant relevance, and Sustainability being the most prolific publication. Notably, a research gap is identified, particularly concerning the consumption of renewable energies and their impact on economic development, as well as studies focusing on renewable energies and economic growth in less developed economies. The empirical segment, Approach (ii), comprises three chapters, two of which delve into the analysis of economic growth, while one focuses on socio-economic development. The first empirical analysis employs an endogenous growth model, applying two distinct models to investigate the relationships between various factors, including financial development, labor force, gross fixed formation, political stability (measured by the GEPU - Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index), energy consumption, human development, and economic growth. The first model explores the connection between economic growth and these factors, while the second model isolates the impact of the workforce, categorized by different educational levels, on economic growth. The findings reveal that gross capital formation displays both economic significance and the expected positive effect, whereas the labor force exhibits a negative relationship with economic growth. The GEPU variable is inversely associated with GDP, suggesting that instability or political uncertainty negatively affects economic growth. Model 2 unveils that intermediate education is positively related to economic growth, whereas advanced education demonstrates a negative relationship. These results emphasize the potential benefits of promoting technical courses tailored to labor market demands to foster sustainable economic development. The second empirical analysis takes a global perspective, introducing the influence of globalization. This study examines the relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, the KOF Globalization index, and economic growth in BRICS economies from 1990 to 2019. Multiple estimators are employed to explore this relationship, and causality is assessed using the Dumitrescu-Hurlin test. The results reveal a positive association between energy consumption and economic growth, though the expected inverted "U" shape relationship is not observed. Cross-effects of the KOF Globalization index generally contribute to economic growth, although the causality test indicates a neutral relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. The final empirical analysis centers on socio-economic development. This study examines the intricate interplay between various socio-economic factors and their impact on the Human Development Index (HDI) across 39 African economies from 2012 to 2022, with a distinction between rural and urban contexts. Key variables under scrutiny include population dynamics, employment opportunities, energy consumption patterns (both renewable and non-renewable), access to electricity, environmental pressure, and technical progress. Results are obtained through dynamic panel methodologies, specifically Bias-Corrected Estimation and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). In rural settings, a population increase adversely affects HDI, while increased job opportunities contribute positively. However, the influence of energy consumption, electricity accessibility, and environmental pressure is negative. Surprisingly, corruption is found to be positively linked with HDI in rural areas. In urban areas, population growth has a negative impact on regional HDI, while increased employment opportunities yield a positive effect. Notably, energy consumption (both renewable and non-renewable) positively affects urban development, a divergence from the rural analysis. Furthermore, CO2 emissions, reflecting environmental pressure, exhibit a positive relationship with the urban Human Development Index. Despite variations in the samples used, a consistent finding emerges: the consumption of renewable energies positively impacts economic growth. This effect is attributed to several factors. Renewable energies are often produced locally and less vulnerable to international market fluctuations compared to fossil fuels. Additionally, ongoing technological advancements make renewable energy adoption increasingly attractive and cost-effective, promising even more substantial benefits for economic growth in the future. One significant challenge in achieving economic growth relates to the workforce, with an unexpected negative relationship observed between workers and their contribution to growth. However, a deeper analysis reveals that only workers with intermediate training positively contribute to growth. Basic education workers do not meet desired performance standards, and highly educated workers' costs outweigh their contributions. To address this, investing in technical training that aligns with labor market demands is essential. Political and economic stability is crucial for fostering economic growth. Stability enables economic agents to predict government policies and plan investments, supporting economic expansion. Achieving sustainable growth requires transparency and smooth policy transitions during leadership changes, allowing markets to understand and predict policymakers' actions, thus contributing to long-term growth. Globalization, which can enhance economic growth through increased trade, also exposes the economy to international fluctuations. To address this challenge, it is recommended to establish deeper partnerships that go beyond trade. These partnerships should involve collaborative research and technology exchanges, benefiting all parties. Furthermore, researcher exchanges can foster knowledge sharing with the common objective of improving both the economy and society, helping to mitigate the potential downsides of increased globalization. This study employed the Human Development Index (HDI) as a metric for evaluating socioeconomic development. Global population growth demonstrates diverse trends, creating a challenge in devising policies for consistent improvement, particularly because this variable exhibited a negative association with socio-economic development. While conventional job creation remains integral, the advent of automation and shifts in the labor market introduce new complexities, underscoring the importance of workforce training and education to accommodate evolving professions. Interestingly, the unexpected positive influence of carbon dioxide emissions on development can be attributed to industrialization and economic activity. Nevertheless, the principal challenge lies in transitioning toward sustainable economic growth that mitigates environmental degradation without jeopardizing overall societal well-being. Striking this delicate balance is imperative for achieving long-term sustainability and inclusive development in academic and policy contexts. In conclusion, this thesis navigates the intricate dynamics of economic growth and socio-economic development by encompassing a range of factors, from energy consumption to institutional variables. The empirical investigations provide valuable insights into the multifaceted relationships in various economic contexts, shedding light on potential policy implications and areas for further exploration.