Faculdade de Ciências Sociais e Humanas
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- Análise do Efeito Diferencial dos Determinantes da Pobreza Energética Urbana e Rural: Evidência em 36 Países AfricanosPublication . Venal, José Francisco Ngando dos; Moutinho, Vitor Manuel Ferreira; Ferreira, ErnestoA África continua a ser um dos continentes com níveis elevados de pobreza energética. Segundo os dados disponíveis durante o período de análise desta pesquisa, é possível notar que, em termos médios, cerca de 57% da população total dos países da amostra analisados não tem acesso ao consumo de eletricidade. Assim, o principal objetivo desta dissertação é analisar e avaliar o efeito diferencial dos determinantes da pobreza energética em África (36 países, sendo 32 pertencentes à África Subsariana e 4 à África Setentrional), no período de 2000 a 2020. Consideraremos a amostra total e duas subamostras na análise da pobreza energética, mensurada pelo acesso da população à eletricidade, tanto urbana quanto rural, de acordo com os dados coletados nos Indicadores de Desenvolvimento do Banco Mundial. Em termos de estudo empírico, para analisar a relação entre o acesso à eletricidade e os seguintes drivers população desempregada, investimento direto estrangeiro, crescimento económico, população ativa dos 15-64 anos e a população idosa com 65 anos ou mais, usamos modelos de regressões fracionárias. Os principais resultados inferem que o crescimento económico e a população com 65 anos ou mais têm um impacto benéfico no acesso à eletricidade. As populações desempregadas em todos os modelos estimados têm um efeito negativo na acessibilidade elétrica. Além disso, o investimento direito estrangeiro urbano tem um efeito positivo, enquanto o investimento direito estrangeiro rural tem um impacto negativo no acesso à eletricidade.
- Assessment of municipal waste in a circular economy: Do European Union countries share an identical performance?Publication . Teixeira, Natércia Maria Mendes; Marques, António Manuel CardosoThe current consumption patterns are leading to the overexploitation of natural resources. When combined with poor waste management strategies, results in uncontrollable amounts of waste. Municipal waste stands out by being an unavoidable output of our daily lives with a dispersed nature, making its management harder. As a central key in the circularisation process, its assessment and insights into its roots causes are required. However, the literature lacks knowledge on monitoring the circular economy. The lack of a universally accepted set of indicators to measure the progress towards circularisation makes it a highly complex process. This paper fills in the gap, by performing a systematic analysis and comparison of the municipal waste performance of the European Union countries towards circularisation. Consequently, it provides further insights into the root causes. Firstly, it involves the employment of the Data Envelopment Analysis. The variables based on the monitoring framework from the European Commission paired with the representation of the consumption of materials, the political concern with waste management, and the economic status of the countries were the inputs and outputs used. Secondly, by using the Fractional Regression Models, we aim to study the determinants’ scores, focusing on maintaining a balance between economic, social, and environmental components. Our sample is formed by 24 European Union countries from 2011 to 2019. Results showed a non-homogeneity in countries’ performances towards circularisation, highlighting a gap among Northern and Southern European Union members. Fractional Regression Models' findings revealed that policies should concentrate on: (i) the improvement of environmental awareness through education; (ii) areas with lower population density; (iii) the transition towards the consumption of energy from renewable energy; and (iv) the fight of the unemployment rate and level of poverty.
- Avaliação Econômica de Investimentos em Infraestrutura Rodoviária e Impacto no PIB dos Estados BrasileirosPublication . Gama, Carlos José de Paiva; Gama, Ana Paula Bernardino MatiasNo Brasil, a infraestrutura rodoviária desempenha um papel crucial no desenvolvimento econômico, facilitando a mobilidade e reduzindo custos logísticos. Este estudo aborda as limitações dos métodos tradicionais de avaliação econômica de projetos de infraestrutura rodoviária, destacando a necessidade de uma abordagem mais abrangente que considere os benefícios econômicos de longo prazo, sociais e ambientais. Análises tradicionais, como a Análise Custo-Benefício (ACB), a Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR) e o Valor Presente Líquido (VPL), são discutidas em relação às suas limitações em capturar todos os impactos dos investimentos. O estudo propõe a integração de abordagens mais holísticas para fornecer uma avaliação completa e precisa dos impactos econômicos dos projetos de infraestrutura. Além disso, este estudo investiga o impacto dos investimentos em infraestrutura rodoviária no crescimento econômico dos estados brasileiros, utilizando dados de 2001 a 2023. As análises foram conduzidas com modelos de regressão de efeitos fixos, revelando que o estoque de infraestrutura rodoviária tem um impacto significativo e positivo no PIB per capita dos estados, enquanto o crescimento do estoque de rodovias mostrou um impacto negativo, sugerindo um desfasamento temporal para a materialização dos benefícios econômicos. Além disso, os investimentos federais em rodovias apresentaram uma correlação positiva com o crescimento econômico. Os resultados destacam a importância de investimentos contínuos e estratégicos em infraestrutura rodoviária para promover o desenvolvimento econômico e reduzir desigualdades regionais.
- Consequences of the energy transition on poverty: evidence from the Southern African Development CommunityPublication . Lucamba, Querubim Capimolo Capamala; Marques, António Manuel Cardoso; Pereira, Diogo André dos SantosThe literature on the consequences of the transition on poverty in SouthernAfricanDevelopment Community (SADC) countries is scarce. This paper aims to fill this gapbystudying the consequences of the energy transition on energy poverty and traditional poverty. This research uses World Data Bank and World Health Organization databases to understandthe consequences of the energy transition on traditional and energy poverty. Anautoregressive distributed lag approach has been carried out to study 15 of the 16SADCcountries between 2000 and 2020. A battery of tests was carried out to assess the data'scharacteristics and the models' specifications. The tests pointed to the autoregressivedistributed lag models estimated with the Driscoll and Kraay estimator as the most suitableone. The results of this dissertation indicate that the consumption of clean energy for cookingreduces energy poverty in SADC countries. Accordingly, this reveals the need for SADCmember countries to have concrete public policies to provide their populations withbetteraccess to sustainable and modern energy sources. Thus, SADC member countries shouldconsider investments in renewable energy sources, such as photovoltaic solar panels, contributing to increased access to electricity without further exacerbating traditional andenergy poverty.
- A Curva ambiental de Kuznets: Uma nova abordagem e a sua aplicação nos países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimentoPublication . Henriques, Beatriz Nunes; Moutinho, Vítor Manuel Ferreira; Leitão, João Carlos CorreiaA presente dissertação visa investigar e validar a relação ambiental entre as emissões de dióxido de carbono e os drivers económicos, institucionais e energéticos, considerando na análise empírica dois períodos, a saber, 2001-2008 e 2009-2019. Esta divisão ocorre para distinguir um período antes da implementação do Protocolo de Quioto e um período após a implementação do mesmo. Mais especificamente, considera-se o Produto Interno Bruto per capita, a Dívida soberana, a Perceção de corrupção, a Incerteza da política económica, o Consumo de energia renovável e o Consumo de energia fóssil (primária) para 22 países desenvolvidos e em vias de desenvolvimento, que foram selecionados de acordo com a informação estatística disponível, para efeitos de análise da relação ambiental da Curva de Kuznets. A análise empírica usa diferentes modelos econométricos, recorrendo ao estimador QML (Quasi Maximum likelihood – First Difference) e ao estimador GMM (Generalized Method of Moments), para aferir da validade da configuração da Curva Ambiental de Kuznets, em forma de U invertido. O principal objetivo é tentar perceber se existem outras formas possíveis de descrever a configuração da Curva Ambiental de Kuznets. As evidências empíricas obtidas apontam no sentido de que todas as variáveis diminuem face a aumentos nas emissões de CO2 com a exceção da variável do Índice de Incerteza da Política Económica que apresenta uma relação de tipo positivo. Adicionalmente, tanto o estimador QML como o estimador GMM, ratificam a observância de uma Curva Ambiental de Kuznets em forma de U.
- Decisões de financiamento das pequenas e médias empresas portuguesas exportadorasPublication . Lusukanu, Isabel Carolina; Teixeira, Zélia Maria da Silva Serrasqueiro; Sardo, FilipeO objetivo deste estudo é analisar as decisões de estrutura de capitais das pequenas e médias empresas (PME), dando enfase à sua atividade exportadora. Para respondermos ao objetivo, recorremos a modelos estáticos de dados em painel, para tratamento dos dados obtidos para uma amostra constituída por 9340 PME portuguesas exportadoras, para o período de análise 2017-2021, o correspondente a um total de 43421 observações. Os resultados mostram que os determinantes tangibilidade e dimensão relacionam-se positivamente, e com significância estatística, com o endividamento total (ENDTOT), o endividamento de médio e longo prazo (ENDLP) e o endividamento de curto prazo (ENDCP). Por sua vez, os determinantes intensidade exportadora, rendibilidade e idade têm um relacionamento negativo e estatisticamente significativo com o ENDTOT, o ENDLP e o ENDCP. A variável covid-19 relaciona-se positivamente e com significância estatística com o ENDTOT e o ENDLP. Porém, este determinante tem um efeito negativo, mas estatisticamente não significativo sobre o endividamento curto prazo.
- Determinantes do financiamento interno das PMEs do setor hoteleiro ibéricoPublication . Valentim, Ludmila Rafaela Zua; Morais, Flávio Daniel Correia; Teixeira, Zélia Maria da Silva SerrasqueiroO objetivo deste estudo e´ analisar os determinantes do financiamento interno das PME do setor hoteleiro ibérico. A investigação nesta área, é crucial devido à dificuldade que muitas PMEs enfrentam ao aceder ao financiamento externo. Para respondermos ao objetivo, recorremos a uma amostra de PMEs portuguesas e espanholas do setor hoteleiro para o período de análise entre 2003-2023. Recorrendo a modelos estáticos de dados em painel verificamos que o financiamento interno das PMEs do setor hoteleiro ibérico é afetado positivamente por fatores como a dimensão da empresa, tesouraria e risco do negócio, enquanto endividamento, a crise financeira de 2008 e a pandemia de COVID-19 têm impactos negativos.
- Efeitos do Salário Mínimo nos Componentes do PIB: O caso de PortugalPublication . Pacheco, Rita Teixeira; Neves, Elena SochircaO presente trabalho estuda os efeitos económicos que o aumento do Salário Mínimo Nacional (SMN) provoca em cada componente do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), em Portugal. Para este propósito foram estimadas 5 (cinco) regressões com cada uma das componentes do PIB como variáveis dependentes, incluindo a variável SMN como variável explicativa de interesse, contando também com outras variáveis de controlo, apontadas pela literatura analisada em estudo. Estudar os efeitos em cada componente da variável de crescimento económico é fundamental para se perceber se o aumento de salário mínimo traz vantagens ou desvantagens económicas a longo prazo, para Portugal. A política de salário mínimo foi incorporada nas diversas economias com o objetivo claro de beneficiar trabalhadores com níveis mais baixos de remuneração e, em prol disso, fortalecer o mercado de trabalho em termos de produtividade. Para que tal seja possível, a sua aplicação tem de ser apoiada por estratégias que permitam expandir os conhecimentos dos trabalhadores e por consequência, aumentar a sua capacidade produtiva. Se tal não for tido em atenção, os custos fiscais desta medida podem ser superiores ao seus benefícios (Thimoteo, 2014). Os resultados obtidos confirmaram que o SMN apresenta um alto nível de significância na explicação dos agregados macroeconómicos que definem o PIB. Neste contexto, foi possível apurar que o aumento do salário mínimo gera efeitos positivos no consumo das famílias, nas importações e nas exportações nacionais; e, efeitos negativos na despesa pública. No caso do investimento os resultados não foram estatisticamente significativos, podendo concluir-se que o SMN não reflete no investimento das empresas nenhum impacto significativo, em Portugal.
- Essays on demand-side management policies and measures: renewables accommodation, energy poverty and pricing strategiesPublication . Pereira, Diogo André dos Santos; Marques, António Manuel Cardoso; Fuinhas, José Alberto Serra Ferreira RodriguesClimate change is a phenomenon primarily caused by an increase in the percentage of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. A large proportion of these polluting emissions come from burning fossil fuels to generate electricity. Researchers and policymakers point to the generation of electricity from endogenous and green resources as the most promising solution to fight global climate change. While the deployment of renewable energy resources has been widely applied, their intermittent features largely mask their advantages over polluting fossil fuels. It is expected that the integration of intermittent renewable energy sources with low marginal costs would reduce electricity prices, also known as the merit-order effect. However, the opposite frequently occurs, i.e., electricity prices show a tendency to increase with the implementation of these energy sources. This could indicate that the deployment of renewable energy sources could deepen the problems related to energy poverty. This fact has been the motivation for the first essay of this thesis; the observation of the impact of renewable energy sources integration on the risk of poverty and social exclusion. A panel data of European countries was analyzed using Kao’s residual cointegration test with a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach. The main findings suggest that an increase in the capacity of intermittent renewable energy as a whole accentuates the risk of poverty and social exclusion for European households. In contrast, it is found that electricity generation from wind power and hydropower reduces households' risk of poverty and social exclusion. These divergent effects highlight the consequences of the intermittency phenomenon of renewable energy, more noticeable with wind power. The potential role of the demand-side in accommodating intermittent renewable energy sources in electricity systems is an area that needs further investigation. This thesis introduces an innovative line of study to provide enhanced empirical evidence about this topic. In the second essay, an empirical analysis of daily data was used to verify the interactions between electricity sources and the periods of differing consumption. The findings indicate that fluctuations in electricity demand are the main barrier to the integration of renewable energy sources. This outcome motivated the following two essays to go further and to break new ground by proposing demand classification methods by levels and time periods, obtained through the assessment of high-frequency historical data. The demand classification methods have provided new knowledge about the occurrence of electricity demand levels (namely, peak, valley, and intermediate), which is highly useful and valuable for designing new pricing strategies. These demand levels were studied in German and French electricity systems due to their high contribution of intermittent renewables and their largest rigid nuclear baseload sources, respectively. The most revealing finding in these two essays was the potential of a Timeof- Use tariff to provide the required demand-side flexibility to accurately accommodate renewables’ intermittence. In other words, involving consumers as an active player in the electricity market, leveraging renewables integration, can be achieved through a time-ofuse pricing strategy. It is crucial to understand whether the benefits promised by renewables effectively occur, specifically for households already suffering from energy poverty, or whether they will contribute to accentuating inequalities, increasing the number of households threatened by energy poverty. Once again, following the energy poverty reasoning, the sixth essay is dedicated to providing evidence on the impact of residential energy consumption forms on energy poverty. This essay assessed the energy poverty of European countries by degrees of urbanization, namely in cities, towns and suburbs, and rural areas. It emerges that energy transition to electricity should be carefully planned and stimulated in towns and suburbs, and rural areas so as not to threaten families with energy poverty. Conversely, in cities, households are prepared to totally satisfy their energy consumption through electricity. The last essay of this thesis assessed the impact of pricing strategies on households' energy cost burden. It is the first research that has extensively analyzed the social and economic impacts of electricity pricing strategies. In this sense, it was able to provide new knowledge and guidance on the design of energy policies, especially those focused on energy transition and on consumer empowerment. To sum up, this thesis proposes pricing strategies and demand-side management measures focused on increasing consumers' willingness to adjust their demand to the availability of renewable energy sources.
- Essays on Economic Growth and Socio-Economic Development: An Exploration of Interrelated Factors and Policy ImplicationsPublication . Oliveira, Henrique Viana Espinosa de; Moutinho, Vítor Manuel Ferreira; Afonso, Oscar João AtanázioThis doctoral thesis undertakes a comprehensive analysis of economic growth and socio-economic development, addressing two pivotal aspects of any economy. The research explores this relationship by considering factors beyond production, notably the consumption of both renewable and non-renewable energies, to assess the presence of a genuine and effective energy transition toward a more harmonious coexistence of economic and environmental concerns. Institutional variables are also incorporated into the analysis to understand their contributions and diagnostic relevance. The thesis is structured into two primary approaches: a theoretical review and an empirical investigation. In the theoretical approach, a rigorous literature review is conducted, serving as the foundation for the empirical segment of the study. Through a systematic review of articles related to Renewable Energy, Economic Growth, and Economic Development published between 2008 and May 2021, using the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Itens for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) methodology, a sample of 111 articles from Web of Science and 199 academic articles from Scopus is assembled. The analysis of these articles underscores the predominance of quantitative methodologies within the field of economic sciences. Moreover, it reveals a growing trend in research on this subject, particularly in post-2015 publications. China emerges as the leading contributor to this body of work, with the journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews holding significant relevance, and Sustainability being the most prolific publication. Notably, a research gap is identified, particularly concerning the consumption of renewable energies and their impact on economic development, as well as studies focusing on renewable energies and economic growth in less developed economies. The empirical segment, Approach (ii), comprises three chapters, two of which delve into the analysis of economic growth, while one focuses on socio-economic development. The first empirical analysis employs an endogenous growth model, applying two distinct models to investigate the relationships between various factors, including financial development, labor force, gross fixed formation, political stability (measured by the GEPU - Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index), energy consumption, human development, and economic growth. The first model explores the connection between economic growth and these factors, while the second model isolates the impact of the workforce, categorized by different educational levels, on economic growth. The findings reveal that gross capital formation displays both economic significance and the expected positive effect, whereas the labor force exhibits a negative relationship with economic growth. The GEPU variable is inversely associated with GDP, suggesting that instability or political uncertainty negatively affects economic growth. Model 2 unveils that intermediate education is positively related to economic growth, whereas advanced education demonstrates a negative relationship. These results emphasize the potential benefits of promoting technical courses tailored to labor market demands to foster sustainable economic development. The second empirical analysis takes a global perspective, introducing the influence of globalization. This study examines the relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, the KOF Globalization index, and economic growth in BRICS economies from 1990 to 2019. Multiple estimators are employed to explore this relationship, and causality is assessed using the Dumitrescu-Hurlin test. The results reveal a positive association between energy consumption and economic growth, though the expected inverted "U" shape relationship is not observed. Cross-effects of the KOF Globalization index generally contribute to economic growth, although the causality test indicates a neutral relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. The final empirical analysis centers on socio-economic development. This study examines the intricate interplay between various socio-economic factors and their impact on the Human Development Index (HDI) across 39 African economies from 2012 to 2022, with a distinction between rural and urban contexts. Key variables under scrutiny include population dynamics, employment opportunities, energy consumption patterns (both renewable and non-renewable), access to electricity, environmental pressure, and technical progress. Results are obtained through dynamic panel methodologies, specifically Bias-Corrected Estimation and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). In rural settings, a population increase adversely affects HDI, while increased job opportunities contribute positively. However, the influence of energy consumption, electricity accessibility, and environmental pressure is negative. Surprisingly, corruption is found to be positively linked with HDI in rural areas. In urban areas, population growth has a negative impact on regional HDI, while increased employment opportunities yield a positive effect. Notably, energy consumption (both renewable and non-renewable) positively affects urban development, a divergence from the rural analysis. Furthermore, CO2 emissions, reflecting environmental pressure, exhibit a positive relationship with the urban Human Development Index. Despite variations in the samples used, a consistent finding emerges: the consumption of renewable energies positively impacts economic growth. This effect is attributed to several factors. Renewable energies are often produced locally and less vulnerable to international market fluctuations compared to fossil fuels. Additionally, ongoing technological advancements make renewable energy adoption increasingly attractive and cost-effective, promising even more substantial benefits for economic growth in the future. One significant challenge in achieving economic growth relates to the workforce, with an unexpected negative relationship observed between workers and their contribution to growth. However, a deeper analysis reveals that only workers with intermediate training positively contribute to growth. Basic education workers do not meet desired performance standards, and highly educated workers' costs outweigh their contributions. To address this, investing in technical training that aligns with labor market demands is essential. Political and economic stability is crucial for fostering economic growth. Stability enables economic agents to predict government policies and plan investments, supporting economic expansion. Achieving sustainable growth requires transparency and smooth policy transitions during leadership changes, allowing markets to understand and predict policymakers' actions, thus contributing to long-term growth. Globalization, which can enhance economic growth through increased trade, also exposes the economy to international fluctuations. To address this challenge, it is recommended to establish deeper partnerships that go beyond trade. These partnerships should involve collaborative research and technology exchanges, benefiting all parties. Furthermore, researcher exchanges can foster knowledge sharing with the common objective of improving both the economy and society, helping to mitigate the potential downsides of increased globalization. This study employed the Human Development Index (HDI) as a metric for evaluating socioeconomic development. Global population growth demonstrates diverse trends, creating a challenge in devising policies for consistent improvement, particularly because this variable exhibited a negative association with socio-economic development. While conventional job creation remains integral, the advent of automation and shifts in the labor market introduce new complexities, underscoring the importance of workforce training and education to accommodate evolving professions. Interestingly, the unexpected positive influence of carbon dioxide emissions on development can be attributed to industrialization and economic activity. Nevertheless, the principal challenge lies in transitioning toward sustainable economic growth that mitigates environmental degradation without jeopardizing overall societal well-being. Striking this delicate balance is imperative for achieving long-term sustainability and inclusive development in academic and policy contexts. In conclusion, this thesis navigates the intricate dynamics of economic growth and socio-economic development by encompassing a range of factors, from energy consumption to institutional variables. The empirical investigations provide valuable insights into the multifaceted relationships in various economic contexts, shedding light on potential policy implications and areas for further exploration.
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